By Dave Anderson:
There were six races that I was paying attention to last night. I thought Democrats or liberals would win the Maine gay marriage referendum, win on civil unions in Washington State and hold onto CA-10 by a decent margin. I expected losses in NY-23, and a blow-out in Virginia and a squeaker of a loss in New Jersey.
Whoops....
I still went 3 for 6 with wins in Washington and California. However the disappointing surprise of the night is Maine. The numbers were looking good, the turnout model was looking good and then the results came in. Another couple of points and the bigots lose (and yes, I use that language intentionally and fully stand behind it.) The schradenfreude surprise was NY-23. I did not expect to see Owens win, and begin the nationalization of the Kansas Republican Party where the moderate wing of the party ran the hell away from the talk-radio bible thumpers and Birchers into the arms of the Democratic Party. That is a probable model for the next couple of years now as the positive feedback loop begins to eat into GOP friendly districts:
The internal dynamics will produce leadership elections of hard liners
and bomb throwers for a couple of cycles, marginalizing the party
nationally and further increasing the institutional power of resource
extraction, social and political reactionaries within their own caucus.
The Democrats don't have to do much for this short to intermediate term
mechanism to play out; run non-corrupt candidates in the Northeast,
resist the urge for meaningless and toothless compromise for
compromise's sake (compromise when there is a good idea to grab of
course)
I still went 3 for 6 on preferred policy/political outcomes, but I really would trade NY-23 for Maine any day of the week.
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