By Dave Anderson:
Pennsylvania politicians are scared to raise broad based taxes even when everyone acknowledges that the state needs more long term and recurring revenue. Gambling and other sin taxes provides for politically "cheap" money as those activities are voluntary activities that can be taxed at a very high rate without too many complaints. That is the logic that encouraged the state to pass slots-parlor legislation in 2004, and that is part of the logic that has table games legalization in the sausage factory right now. Gambling revenue will solve all state, county, city and regional fiscal problems at an acceptable political cost.
Right now the city of Pittsburgh and Allegheny County are counting on gambling revenue to bail out their general budget. The problem is that the Pittsburgh Rivers Casino is massively underperforming expectations so there will be a significant revenue shortfall for the bankrupt city and functionally bankrupt county governments. Both entities also want to apply any local share of future table game revenue to maintain the city library system at its current size instead of recognizing that the city has half the population it had at its peak and the library system has never shut down a neighborhood branch despite mass population lost and high service costs.
Casinos will solve all problems....
Ohio has come to that conclusion as well. Ohio voters approved Issue 3 last night. Issue 3 authorizes the construction of a full-service casino in each of the four largest cities in Ohio; Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinati and Toledo.
I am assuming that these casinos will be similar to all the other casinos in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions ---fairly generic with no 99% nude girls serving free drinks at the craps table -- and thus these casinos will mainly be serving a local audience. I do not anticipate too many non-regional gamblers saying "Well, I could go to Vegas but guess what Cleveland or Pittsburgh sounds better, let's go to Cleveland..."
This is a major problem for the Pennsylvania casinos, especially the Pittsburgh and Erie casinos. Previously, they had the proximity advantage to a decent chunk of Ohio --- they were the closest generic casinos where someone could drop fifty bucks into the slots. Within two or three years, they will not be the closest generic casino. Long term revenue projections will have to be adjusted significantly downwards as Ohio provided a decent chunk of the out of state gamblers to the Western PA. locations.
So the casinos will not solve all problems as gambling is looking more and more like a mature industry with normal cyclical flows and declining net profit margins.
Someone, someday soon will have to make tough choices instead of electing to expand gambling.
Back in the late 80's, when "riverboat gambling" was first proposed in this area, I thought it would be a good idea. Then, the only two gambling areas in the country were Las VEgas and Atlantic City. Even the Indian Reservation casions were few and far between.
ReplyDeleteOf course, Harrisburg dithered. When the latest push came, I opposed it, simply because it no longer was somewhat unique. But we went ahead anyway, and all that will happen is disposable (hopefully) income that might have gone towards other local entertainment options will now go to the casino.