By Dave Anderson:
Pennsylvania has a tradition of electing governors from the same party for two terms and then giving the other party two terms. That has gone back since 1968 when the governorship was term limited to two terms. So just based on a historical pattern, it would not be surprising that a Republican would have a good chance to win the governorship. The state is also looking at a budget fight next summer that made this year's three month foodfight without a budget look small. This year's fight was over $3 billion dollars, next year's fight could be over $5 billion dollars without the reserves or the stimulus funds that cushioned the pain this year. So again, it will suck to be an incumbent as government policy next year will be solely focused on goring oxes.
However, these are just reasons why people will want to throw the bums out; not why Corbett is the likely next governor of Pennsylvania. He is the Republican Attorney General who is creating a public persona of an effective and non-partisan good government reformer. His office indicted and prosecuted a good chunk of the Democratic leadership in Harrisburg during the summer of 2008. And now his office is indicting and prosecuting a decent chunk of the Republican Harrisburg leadership:
A former [Pennsylvania] House speaker, an ex-lawmaker and eight
aides Thursday became the latest � and the first Republicans � to be
charged in a three-year-old investigation into the diversion of public
resources and employees to legislative campaigns.Attorney General Tom Corbett said that individuals within the House
GOP caucus spent millions of taxpayer dollars on computer technology to
gain an upper hand in campaigns, and that investigators can prove that
some high-ranking officials and their employees tried to cover up their
part.
The charges are similar for both parties; using state resources for further political/electoral gains. Most likely Corbett will see the same chain with the Republicans, as the small fries cut deals and testify and pressure is placed on the senior elected leadership. So Corbett will be able to make the claim in the general election (assuming he is not Teabagged in May's Republican primary) that he can credibly claim to clean up the mess in Harrisburg as the Legislature is slightly less popular than gonorrhoea right now and everyone loves to hate on them.
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