By Steve Hynd
With any Iranian nuclear fuel swap deal seemingly DOA, the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency has swiftly passed a vote condemning Iran for not being forthcoming enough in answering charges derived from the dodgy Laptop of Death and has called upon Iraq to close the Qom "hole in a mountain" before it can become an actual enrichment facility. The U.S. has congratulated the IAEA on the resolution as if it didn't push hard behind the scenes for adoption itself - going as far as reportedly telling China that if it didn't vote yes then Israel would attack Iran. And the U.S., priming its allies as ever, obviously expects to use the resolution as the cause for a new UNSC vote on further sanctions.
If a facility that couldn't be functional until 2011 and some allegations based on probably Mossad inspired electronic files tha even the IAEA aren't allowed to have originals of seem a thin pretext for such sanctions to you - then yeah, they are. Remember that outgoing IEAE head Mohammed El Baradei is still sticking by his assertion that Iran has no nuclear weapons program, as is American Director of National Intelligence Adm. Dennis Blair.
But sanctions might not be so easy to secure. Russia is prevaricating over whether to throw Iran under the bus and might still decide that agreements for nuclear programs and missile sales should be lived up to despite its wishes to keep America on its good side for now. China is unlikely to back any UNSC resolution and the best the U.S. can hope for is that China will abstain rather than veto. Meanwhile, India, which voted for the IAEA resolution, has already said it will not back a new round of sanctions despite that vote. Others who are unlikely to support further sanctions include the interesting list of those nations who abstained at the IAEA - Brazil, Egypt, Pakistan, South Africa, Turkey and Afghanistan - alongside Cuba, Malaysia and Venezuela, who voted against Iran's censure.
Still, it seems that the Clintonista/neocon axis of hawks and the D.C. punditry Village have won the day. Obama was only ever going to get one chance instead of the many Bush threw away. Despite there being plenty of good reasons why we should still be talking to Iran and despite the flimsy evidence that it is seeking nukes at all, it seems that sanctions co-ordinated with a "colaition of the willing" will be the next item on the American agenda, to be followed in due course by the falling bombs progressives have been trying to halt since Bush ramped up the rhetoric in 2005.
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