Mousavi, Karroubi take to the streets again

By Gregg Carlstrom

First of all, I'm new around here, so a quick introduction: I'm a journalist, based in DC at the moment, and I blog over at The Majlis, which focuses on the Middle East and Central Asia.

Steve was kind enough to ask me to do some posting here, and those are the areas I'll be focusing on.

For an inaugural post here, I want to turn to Iran. We've all spent the last few weeks focused on Iran's nuclear program. The pro-democracy movement, and the still-simmering controversy over June's stolen election, have largely fallen out of the news.

That will change this week: Mousavi and Karroubi plan to hold a rally on Wednesday, Nov. 4 -- the 13th of Aban in the Iranian calendar. Wednesday marks the 30th anniversary of the takeover of the U.S. embassy in Tehran.

The embassy takeover is an important part of the regime's founding mythology. It helped to undermine Mehdi Bazargan's government and, along with the Iran-Iraq war, cemented the mullahs' grip on power.

(Ironically, many of the planners of the seizure have since fallen out of favor with the regime. The original planner, Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, is today a pro-democracy activist and an advocate of improved relations with the United States.)

So staging a rally on the 13th of Aban -- appropriating the regime's day -- is a nice slap at Ahmadinejad and his allies. And it's a smart tactical move, to boot. The regime encourages public demonstrations on the 13th of Aban. It will have a hard time keeping pro-democracy demonstrators from the streets, much like it did on Qods Day in September.

The regime, meanwhile, continues to tighten the noose around pro-democracy activists in Iran. Kian Tajbakhsh, an Iranian-American scholar arrested in July, was sentenced last week to a stunning 15-year jail sentence. He was charged with consulting for George Soros' Open Society Institute; the regime described it as a "CIA satellite institution."

Iranian police have issued a warning that they will crack down on any "illegal rallies" on Wednesday.

The nuclear negotiations will make headlines this week too, of course.

Ha'aretz's military/intelligence reporter, Yossi Melman, thinks the U.S. will continue negotiating with Iran despite its unfavorable response to the IAEA's draft offer. Melman thinks this is mostly because they have no other option.

The United States and the European Union have responded neither to the lateness of Tehran's reply nor to its ambiguity, and have yet to demand clarification. The lack of response seems to stem from the realization that Russia and China will not join the United States and Europe if the latter seek greater sanctions against Iran.

Ahmadinejad seems to agree: He said today that the U.S. and Europe have the power of "a mosquito."

Still, the regime seems to be bracing itself for the possibility of sanctions. State media reported this week that Iran will open bank accounts for 36 million people -- half its population -- to provide them with cash compensation for higher food and energy prices. That will blunt the impact of the government's decision to phase out fuel subsidies over the next few years.

The subsidy cut is partly related to Iran's mounting budget deficit, but it's also considered a preemptive response to possible economic sanctions.