Scary Stories From McChrystal's Camp

By Steve Hynd

Sean Naylor, staff writer of the Air Force Times, might be expected to be somewhat partisan, so I'll give him a partial pass on his latest article, channeling scary stories from McChrystal's head of intelligence, Maj. Gen. Mike Flynn. However, what Flynn himself has to say is an outrageous spin of the underlying fact - that locals form the basis of the Afghan insurgency - into a set of pseudo-facts designed to further the escalation narrative. At least, I hope that McChrystal's people don't actually believe their own hype.

Naylor leads his report:

The expansion of Islamic extremist groups across the Afghanistan-Pakistan region is �the worst I�ve seen it,� with Afghan insurgents receiving help from Iranian operatives and �very possibly� freelancing Pakistani intelligence agents, as well as a small but growing number of �deadly� foreign fighters, said Maj. Gen. Mike Flynn, director of intelligence for Gen. Stanley McChrystal�s headquarters here.

�I wouldn�t say it�s out of control right now, but this is a California wildfire and we�re having to bring in firemen from New York,� said Flynn.

Then we get to the nitty-gritty. Out of some "19,000 to 27,000 insurgents" in Afghanistan, but the number of Al Qaeda fighters is "less than a hundred". However, Flynn ascribes superhuman powers to these fighters and the �more than a hundred� non-AQ foreign fighters he also claims are in Afghanistan alongside local insurgents.

�The numbers have gone back and forth � is there 50? 70? 100?� he said. �It doesn�t make any difference. If there�s a couple out there that are the hard-core, ideologically-driven individuals and they have the imprimatur of Mullah Omar to get out there and help train, then they become a very deadly fuel in a fire.�

A couple of hundred, at most, among tens of thousands, having so much effect! Can we enlist them to train the Afghan National Army and police instead of sending a couple of brigades of U.S. troops? We've already got 3,000 or more U.S. trainers having far less success motivating between 60 and 90,000 Afghan police. (The numbers are estimated because the policemen keep deserting.)

So - the Afghan insurgency is an indigenous one, but U.S. military intelligence is spinning it like mad to create a scary story of Al Qaeda involvement. Thus creating the link between AQ and Afghanistan that justifies further troop escalation out of whole cloth.

Then there's the supposed unity of purpose among Taliban and AQ elements that COINdinistas and pro-escalation experts have been so vocal about recently. Flynn first blows that narrative then tries to spin it back.

�The Haqqanis, they subordinate themselves for a variety of reasons to the Quetta Shura,� with the Taliban senior leadership in Quetta issuing orders to the Haqqanis, he said. Meanwhile, Hekmatyar�s group does not necessarily subordinate itself to the Taliban but it does cooperate with them, so that when HiG conducts an attack, �like an operation against a governor in the east, they will say that it was a Taliban-initiated event,� Flynn said. �They use the Taliban as sort of their umbrella, to act as one, or certainly to be perceived as one.�

...�They�re coordinating enough today that I believe this expansion of the Islamic extremist movement, particularly in this region, is to the point where it�s the worst I�ve seen it, [and] the coordination amongst those groups is the best I�ve seen it,� he said, adding that the groups share common strategic goals. �The common goals are to create an Islamic state and to rid the region of the un-Islamic enemies, and particularly in Afghanistan it�s the international community that�s here, certainly the Americans,� he said.

The real but unspoken news there? The American-led occupation of Afghanistan is a major driver of the insurgency. The UK's DfID study, a recent Senate report and leaks of current US intelligence analysis reveal that most of the insurgency, while it might take training from the Taliban, could care less about the Taliban's ideological agenda. Between 70 and 90 percent of insurgents are motivated by resistance to occupying invaders or by the ethnic divides - the domination of Tajiks in a government ruling a Pashtun majority. The Taliban just pay them to do lip service to their ideology and run under their banner. Al-Qaida and the various Taliban factions joined at the hip? Not so much, but they like to try to create that perception.

The last noticeable scary story in Naylor's piece is just as predictable. When discussing possible Pakistani influence, anyone from the I.S.I. that might be backing the Afghan insurgency is presumed to be frellancing - but if there are Iranians involved then they must be acting under State orders.

The two-star general chose his words carefully when asked whether Pakistan�s Inter-Services Intelligence agency, which was an early sponsor of the Taliban and retains links to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Jalaluddin Haqqani from their days as mujahedeen commanders, still supports those groups.

�There is no known state affiliation,� said Flynn, who had just returned from a meeting with Pakistani military leaders in Islamabad. He acknowledged that the implication of his statement was that if ISI personnel were helping the insurgents, it was on a freelance basis, outside the purview of the ISI leadership, and said that scenario was �very possible.�

Flynn was more direct when asked about the activities in Afghanistan of Iran�s Quds Force, an elite element in the Revolutionary Guard that combines intelligence and special operations functions.

�They are conducting intelligence operations,� he said, adding that the Quds Force was �playing games on both sides [of the Afghan-Pakistan border] that are very dangerous.�

The Quds Force was �probably� doing things in Afghanistan that were getting coalition troops killed, including providing weapons to insurgents and training the Taliban, he said.

U.S. forces in Afghanistan have not captured any Quds Force operatives, but �the Afghans have captured Iranians,� Flynn said, referring to four Iranians caught smuggling small arms in Nimruz in July.

...When questioned as to whether it was his working assumption that the four were Quds Force members, Flynn replied: �They were bringing in weapons. Now, do they have the badge that says �QF� on the logo? No.�

...Nonetheless, the Quds Force was still a malevolent force in Afghanistan, Flynn stressed. �The IRGC Quds Force is an organization that needs to be checked at the door,� he said. �And if the country of Iran wants to act responsibly on the world stage they need to take that organization, dismantle it and get it to quit acting like a nation-state-backed terrorist organization.�

Instead, he said, �They�re playing the game. When I talk about the California wildfire, they�re not standing there with a big fire hose putting the fire, let�s just say that. If there�s anything coming out of that hose, it�s grease.�

Four guys swapping guns for opium, criminal private entrepreneurs for all Flynn knows, are presumed to be acting on IRGC orders. Is Occam not taught to American officers or officials anymore? It's yet another bit of spin. Pakistan is our somewhat-ally so downplay their involvement, Iran is the bad guy so hype theirs. And again, it's all about justifying escalation.

As to "grease" on the fire: well. Iran's involvement has reportedly given Afghanistan the closest thing it has to reconstruction success.

As I say, I'm giving Naylor somewhat of a pass, given where he works. But really, most US journalists for major media outlets wouldn't have done any better. Asking hard questions of military mouthpieces just isn't done, you know.