Waiting is leverage

By Dave Anderson:



If the cascades of leaks are correct, President Obama is taking his time to make a well informed decision that may actually be a decent decision on troop strength and political objectives that those troops could achieve in Afghanistan instead of making a decision that came out of the bureaucratic puke funnel.



The US review has determined that eliminating the Taliban or more importantly, Pashtun nationalism is a farcical goal that can not be achieved using any tolerable method (mass Pu238 fueled ethnic cleansing is out of the equation). So any US troops there are there to prop up the Karzai government and to wait until some type of decent interval or a decent political settlement can be reached where the Pashtun interests are reconciled with Tajik and other Afghan group interests and what should be the minimal interests of the United States and ISAF --- the denial of space and resources for far enemy terrorist strikes and planning cells. Anyways, making an underinformed decision today versus making one that is better informed next week will have minimal impact on any deployment schedule as the US Army and Marines are tapped out until next summer for deployable combat brigades, and the support units (Civil Affairs, Military Police, engineers etc) have maintained a higher OP-Tempo then the combat units. The 2004-2005 National Guard deployment to Iraq will be resetting over the next few months and that is one likely source to draw units, but those units won't be ready any sooner if a decision is made today or on Thanksgiving.




Waiting to make a decision increases leverage for the United States over our corrupt bastards in Kabul, including Karzai, not weakens it. The US needs the Karzai government to realize that it is a weak player in Afghanistan that is only the apparenent top dog in Kabul because it is backed by 100,000 heavily armed foreigners. That is typically a weak position of legitimacy when the so-called legitimate government is acknowledged to be corrupt as hell and needs foreign guns to maintain power. Adding troops without reform or at least the pretext of reforming the most visible signs and manifestations of corruption is pointless as it takes away the biggest negoatiating chip the United States has. Making increased support for the Karzai government depedent upon significant changes and not committing to increased support until the changes are made increases the probability that those changes will be sustained for at least three seconds after the troops or resources are committed.



Leverage is good to have, and I agree with Steve, an announced time line for a drawdown and then withdrawal would provide everyone significant incentives to face reality and cut the relevant deals. As a second best, making aid conditional on change, is not too bad.