Waiting for the collapse

Commentary By Ron Beasley

I've been quiet the last few days largely as the result of frustration.  One of my favorite science fiction writers, L.E. Modesitt, has a series of books that take place about a hundred years from now - after what he calls the "collapse".  I reviewed one of them here. In Modesitt's future man is not extinct but you can infer there are far fewer humans on the planet.  Technology has continued to advance but that technology has presented both new moral and social issues.  Some things don't change - those with wealth and power will still do anything to get even more.

Modesitt does not go into any details about the collapse but there are a few hints.  Many of what are now the world capitols are flooded so we can assume climate change played a part.  This is a future without fossils fuels so we can probably also assume that the brick wall of peak oil also played a part.  Fewer humans would indicate that famine contributed.

I see nothing to indicate that anything is being done to avoid Modesitt's "collapse."  When we voted for Obama were were hopping for a Roosevelt, instead we got Hoover, a man who listened to the very people who were responsible for the great depression.  It's too late to mitigate the impact of peak oil and I believe the same is true for climate change and nothing is being done to correct the reckless economy.

So a new Dark Age is upon us.  Collapses - Dark Ages -  are both inevitable and necessary.  Societies and civilizations are made up of people and like those people civilizations grow old and die.  Societies/civilizations are controlled by oligarchs who by their very nature are sociopaths who unable to think beyond additional wealth and power today.  That has been the case since tribes first became civilizations.  This is certainly not the first time but could it be that last?  The collapse will spawn wars - over fossil fuels and perhaps more important water and land suitable for food production.  The question is how nuclear will the wars get?  Modesitt's future depends on limited nuclear warfare.  But even without it billions, yes billions. will die.  India may be the first major victim of global warming and the impact will be famine and this will be a result of the good intentions of Norman Borlaug. The famine related chaos in India will spread throughout the region including the middle east.  It is in that region we have a nuclear India, Pakistan and an increasingly radicalized Israel.   The future of the human race probably depends on irrationally religious zealots in the middle east. 

In Modesitt's future North America is in better shape after the collapse than most of the world.  Not an unreasonable assumption simply because we can probably feed most of the population.

Unfortunately Moddesitt's message is that while things may change they don't.