Will H1N1 Become a Seasonal Flu Strain?

By John Ballard

Crof points to a post at the Virology Blog about this question.

The 1968 pandemic began with the emergence of a novel H3N2 influenza virus in Hong Kong in July 1968. First isolates... were obtained globally throughout the summer. The previous seasonal H2N2 strain was last isolated in August 1968 in Australia and was subsequently not seen again. There were sporadic H3N2 outbreaks for several months...  Epidemic spread... ensued in the northern hemisphere throughout the winter, and then ceased in the spring of 1969. In the southern hemisphere the first epidemic occurred from January through October. There were second seasons of epidemic spread in both hemispheres, ending in the summer of 1970. After that time the H3N2 strain became a seasonal strain, causing local epidemics each year as the virus underwent antigenic drift.

If the pattern of H3N2 serves as a guide, we might predict that the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 virus will display pandemic spread for at least one more season. In the northern hemisphere, the second season would comprise November 2010 � April 2011. However, immunity in older individuals might blunt the spread of the virus beyond the current first season. It also remains to be seen how much immunization will impact pandemic spread.

At one point the 2009 H1N1 swine-origin influenza virus will become a seasonal strain, and the monovalent vaccine will no longer be produced. At that time the season influenza vaccine will likely comprise a �drifted� version of the 2009 H1N1 strain and an influenza B virus. By all current indications the previous seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 strains will soon disappear from humans � although not from the globe.

When so many scientific minds are at work, it is hard to imagine an international global conspiracy based on concealing scientific conclusions. Despite the odds against it, millions of people are still hostage to fears and doubts about scientific matters about which they themselves know nothing. 

I'm thinking here about the anti-vaccination crowd, global warming skeptics and opponents to sex education and family planning. Even as the H1N1 outbreak comes to an end, a few reports of side effects of the vaccine are being reported, including prophylactic shock, sudden changes in blood pressure, and even a couple of cases of Guillain-Barr�yndrome.Otherwise responsible people quickly seize on these isolated events as evidence that vaccinations are dangerous and concerned parents should not allow their children, much less themselves, to be immunized. 

Last night's evening news carried the recent climate change stolen emails story, giving credibility to ignorant implications about the international scientific community, a group of already curious and skeptical people disciplined to ask probing questions along with their morning coffee. I find it unthinkable that even a handful, much less an organized majority of this group, is capable of agreeing on anything resembling a global conspiracy about anything.

The challenge of running a representative democracy has more to do with overcoming ignorance in the electorate than getting representatives to come to agreement about issues. If after generations the rest of the world follows the metric system and we remain wed to the English system of weights and measures what else can be expected?

Came across a great line by H.L.Mencken  the other day at Michael Wade's place. 

Democracy is the art of running the circus from the monkey cage.