Election in Ukraine

By BJ Bjornson

Today was election day in Ukraine, though not having a first-past-the-post system, there will apparently be a run-off election in February between the two top vote-getters, Victor Yanukovych and Tulia Tymoshenko.

Rueters has a good run-down of the significant events since the last preisdential election in Ukraine, when the “Orange Revolution” overturned the results that would have seen Yanukovych installed as President then instead of Viktor Yushchenko, who was eliminated during this first vote.

Tymoshenko was one of the “Orange Revolution” leaders back in 2004, but fell out of favour with Yushchenko over her more pragmatic attitude regarding their largest neighbour, Russia. While Yushchenko’s opposition to Russia made him a darling of the West, much as his Georgian counterpart Mikheil Saakashvili was and to some extent still is, the fact of the matter is that pissing of your larger and more powerful neighbour is a good way to find yourself in less than ideal circumstances, both from a security standpoint and economically.

Ukraine has been hit quite badly by the economic crisis of the last year and a half, and with an unfriendly President at the helm, Russia hasn’t been willing to do much in the way of helping out. Yushchenko’s ideological rigidity in this case has likely cost the country dearly, and explains why he has been met with one setback after another recently. (Check Rueters timeline, Yushchenko’s Foreign and Defence Ministers were both sacked by Parlaiment, and Russia refused to amend their gas supply contract in November.)

With a less ideologically-opposed head in the Ukraine following the run-off, it would be a safe bet that Moscow will be more conciliatory, particularly if Ukraine takes a less confrontational approach regarding the Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol. Reducing tensions in the region can only help.

Something else in the stories from Ukraine should be familiar to more than a few folks in the U.S.

Donetsk is Viktor Yanukovych's heartland. He won most votes there in 2004 and expects to do so again this year.

But Mr Bondarenko can find no cheer in the revival of Mr Yanukovych's electoral fortunes. He is disenchanted with the entire political elite.

"Yanukovych, Tymoshenko, Yushchenko, they've all had their time in power," he says. "They did nothing. And then, when they lose power they say, 'Elect me, and I'll make life better'."

. . .

"All pre-election processes in Ukraine depend on money, and this money is given by oligarchs," says Najem. "So Tymoshenko and Yanukovych, they are dependent on these oligarchs."

The Orange Revolution promised to break the power of this small group of fabulously wealthy businessmen.

But Najem says that the influence of the oligarchs has actually grown, as they spread their money among different candidates ahead of the election.