Gassy thoughts for Pennsylvania

By Dave Anderson: 

Pennsylvania has been a coal state, and it is still a coal state.  The Pittsburgh Seam is still one of the richest seams of coal in the world despite being aggressively mined for over a century.  Most of the mountain counties in the state count on significant coal mining for their economic base.  At least six congressional districts are districts where the distinguishing characteristic between the two parties is on whom is more friendly to coal interests.  For this reason, Pennslyvania's political leadership, most notably, its Senators could be expected to be no-votes for any carbon dioxide regulation that actually has teeth, as coal is the biggest polluter per BTU or watt produced.

Pennsylvania has always had a comparatively clean energy industry cluster that would most likely benefit from strong carbon dioxide regulation and reduction in the nuclear power industry.  Westinghouse's nuclear division was headquartered in Monroeville, PA for decades until it moved down the Turnpike to Cranberry, PA last year.  Westinghouse is seeing a major employment revival as more countries are looking to increase their nuclear reactor counts in reaction to high hydro-carbon prices in the past eight years.  However Westinghouse has not generated a countervailing political force that would alter the current political dynamic for Pennsylvania politicians to support coal interests.

However that might be changing.  One of the other big winners to carbon dioxide reduction would be natural gas producing regions.  Pennslyvania has historically been a minor producer of natural gas and oil, but that is changing as the Marcellus Shales which contain massive reserves are now economically and technologically feasible to produce significant quantities of gas.  USA Today noted the size of the reserves in 2008:

It could contain as much as 50 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, according to a recent study by researchers at Penn State University and the State University of New York at Fredonia.

The United States produces about 19 trillion cubic feet of gas a year, so the Marcellus field would be a boon if new drilling technology works, Penn State geoscientist Terry Engelder said.

"The value of this science could increment the net worth of U.S. energy resources by a trillion dollars, plus or minus billions," he said.

The Washington Post in December 2009 reported a massive expansion of estimated gas reserves in the Marcellus Shales:

 The Marcellus shale formation, stretching across swaths of Pennsylvania, New York and West Virginia, has enough gas to meet the entire nation's needs for at least 14 years, according to an estimate by two Pennsylvania State University experts.

Either of those two estimates are large enough to create a long term countervailing political coalition that wants to increase the relative price and difficulty of coal consumption compared to natural gas consumption.  I do not think that we'll see Coal Country Pennsylvania Congresscritters (of either party) voting for carbon dioxide regulation this year, but the trends are changing to where there should be an opportunity for a pro-natural gas but anti-coal candidate to do well within the next six years.