By Dave Anderson:
There are five Western Pennsylvania House seats up for election this fall. Two seats, PA-14 and PA-18 are almost definite holds, one each for the Democrats and Republicans, respectively. The other three seats, PA-3, PA-4 and PA-12 are currently held by Democrats but generically trend Republican. PA-4 is represented by Democrat Rep. Jason Altmire, PA-3 is held by Dem. freshman Rep. Kathleen Dahlkemper, and PA-12 was held by the former Rep. John Murtha. PA-12 has a special election to replace Murtha in May.
Rep. Dahlkemper in PA-3 has a tough hold. Her district leans slightly Republican and she is a freshman. She does not have a deep well of ties and constituent service goodwill to build a benefit of the doubt or incumbency. However, her campaign manager should be doing cartwheels as her healthcare yes vote should guarantee her significant labor support.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette details the split that labor, which worked their asses off for Altmire in 2006 and 2008, has had with Altmire:
Mr. Altmire hasn't talked to the labor leader from Allegheny County -- which holds almost half of the registered voters in the 4th District -- since the vote.
"There's nobody burning bridges. We're not the kind of organization that does that," Mr. Shea said. "He needs to start, No. 1, telling the truth, and No. 2, start talking to people. It's going to be hard for any leader of labor to bring the members of his district around to vote for him."
The Democratic candidate in PA-12 is running as hard to the right as he can. I don't think that will help him in an Appalachian district. He is doing nothing to motivate any Democratic base voter to come out and vote for him as this ad argues that he'll vote Republican whenever it matters:
If Western Pennsylvania labor is determined to make healthcare a bright line vote, then Dahlkemper's campaign manager should be doing cartwheels, as she should benefit from the vast majority of labor's money, organizers and volunteers.
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