By Dave Anderson:
Most political strategists would be overwhelmed with euphoria if half of the relevant public thought that their party and advisees were uncorrupted and more importantly incorruptible.
Most political strategists would be happy if half of the relevant public thought that their party was only mildly corrupt in terms of fixing traffic tickets, getting good seats to the Steelers v. Ravens game and 'borrowing' SUVs to go see a concert.
Most political strategists figure they can do their job if half of the relevant public thought their party was corrupt, but so was everyone else. They can work with government charged moat cleaning, risque texting of under-age pages and selective prosecutions if the other guys are found to have several times median district earnings in cash sitting in their freezer or tickle parties are arranged.
Most political strategists would advise their candidates to look for a new career if 67% of the relevant population thought the candidate and their party/coalition were corrupt enough to impact basic daily functioning.
Almost all political strategists would look for a new client if a majority of the relevant public thought their opponent was incorruptible.
Wired's Danger Room passes along a very interesting survey of public opinion in some areas of Khandahar Province that should create a significant pause.
Download Kandahar-province-survey-report-5-apr-2010-for-isaf
The basic findings are simple; residents of Khandahar province believe the Taliban is a legitimate force that represents some of their basic interests and can not be corrupted. They also believe that the government of Afghanistan is corrupt as hell and more dangerous to daily living than either the Taliban or foreign fighters or IEDs on the roadways.
This should call into question the basis of American COIN doctrine. American COIN doctrine presumes that there is an available and legitimate government that just needs some extra help combating an alien and ineffective insurgent infestation. Under that reading, armed force is used to create a security bubble which allows for the weak but legitimate government to prove its legitimacy by providing public goods and services to a population that is then grateful for the improved standard of living and thus turns on their oppressors by providing intelligence, manpower and militias in support of the government.
That short story does not seem like it applies in the Pashtun heartland of Afghanistan.
Perhaps things look a little clearer if we remove the US frame. The Taliban were the government. However, backward and primitive and brutal they may have been, they were still the government who came to power according to the prevailing rules of the game. The US, however benevolent we may consider ourselves, is a foreign occupier. The "Afghan government" is a puppet regime, notwithstanding Karzai's attempts to declare his non-puppethood, installed by the occupiers. All who work with us are collaborators.
ReplyDeleteWe are attempting to practice counter-insurgency against not insurgents but folks who many Afghans might consider to be the legitimate government. How do you even begin to apply COIN doctrine?