Most favored cartel status up for grabs

By Dave Anderson:

Violence occurs because of conflict.  Conflict occurs because of goal set differences between various actors. When there is only a single actor, there is much less competition and thus much less conflict. Violence will go down when there is a clear and undisputed winner.  

Mexico's drug war may see a decrease in violence as a winner may be emerging.  The AP reports that the Sinaloa cartel is in the mopping-up phase of the Juarez drug war.  

After a two-year battle that has killed more than 5,000 people, Mexico's most powerful kingpin now controls the coveted trafficking routes through Ciudad Juarez. That conclusion by U.S. intelligence adds to evidence that Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman's Sinaloa cartel is winning Mexico's drug war...

The agent told The Associated Press those sources have led U.S. authorities to believe that the Sinaloa cartel has edged out the rival Juarez gang for control over trafficking routes through Ciudad Juarez, ground zero in the drug war.

The article later reports that the Juarez campaign was being squeezed by a combination of Sinoloa pressure and government pressure. Further east along the border, the anti-Zeta push seems to have at least tacit Mexican government support.  

Borderland Beat reports that some of the cartels believe the Mexican government is seeking to have a 'most favored cartel' that can act as a quasi-protostate on the northern border, manage the drug cash flow and manage a low level of violence.  

Heads of Mexican drug cartels believe that the Mexican government has taken sides in the wars among the cartels. The murders of three U.S. Consulate employees were not random acts of violence as the media have portrayed them, but an effort to engage US citizens in the battle and force the US government to intervene in Mexico and neutralize the favoritism of the Mexican government.

A dispersion of state power through the granting of most favored cartel status to one or two cartels would greatly reduce the level of violence in the north while minimizing the disruption and further delegitimating of the Mexican government.