By Steve Hynd
Some of us warned that an escalation, or "surge" in COINspeak, would lead to more violence in Afghanistan and actually strengthen the Taliban there. A new Pentagon report suggests we were right.
A Pentagon report presented a sobering new assessment Wednesday of the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan, saying that its abilities are expanding and its operations are increasing in sophistication, despite recent major offensives by U.S. forces in the militants' heartland.
The report, requested by Congress, portrays an insurgency with deep roots and broad reach, able to withstand repeated U.S. onslaughts and to reestablish its influence, while discrediting and undermining the country's Western-backed government.
But the Pentagon said it remained optimistic that its counter-insurgency strategy, formed after an Obama administration review last year, and its effort to peel foot soldiers away from the Taliban will show success in months to come.
Well yeah. The Pentagon has to try to be upbeat. The careers of its top bright-spark generals, the entire edifice of COIN upon which it has built its vision for future armed interventions and a sizeable chunk of the $1 trillion dollar defense budget are all riding on this one. To say they have a vested interest in spinning Afghanistan is like saying the Pope has a vested interest in spinning Catholic priests abusing kiddies.
The new report offers a grim take on the likely difficulty of establishing lasting security, especially in southern Afghanistan, where the insurgency enjoys broad support. The conclusions raise the prospect that the insurgency in the south may never be completely vanquished, but instead must be contained to prevent it from threatening the government of President Hamid Karzai.
The report concludes that Afghan people support or are sympathetic to the insurgency in 92 of 121 districts identified by the U.S. military as key terrain for stabilizing the country. Popular support for Karzai's government is strong in only 29 of those districts, it concludes.
U.S.-led military operations have had "some success in clearing insurgents from their strongholds, particularly in central Helmand," the report said. But it adds: "The insurgent tactic of re-infiltrating the cleared areas to perform executions has played a role in dissuading locals from siding with the Afghan government, which has complicated efforts to introduce local governance."...The insurgency has easy access to fighters, small arms and explosives for roadside bombs, the report notes, giving fighters a "robust means" to sustain military operations.
"A ready supply of recruits is drawn from the frustrated population, where insurgents exploit poverty, tribal friction, and lack of governance to grow their ranks," the report said.
The report also notes that insurgents' tactics are increasing in sophistication and the militants have also become more able to achieve broader strategic effects with successful attacks. The Taliban continue to use threats and targeted killings to intimidate the Afghan population.
At the same time, Taliban shadow governments, which can include courts and basic social services, have strengthened, undermining the authority of the Afghan government, according to the report.
Taliban leaders also have undermined the credibility of the central Afghan government by leveling accusations of corruption -- many of them accurate -- against local and regional officials, the report said. Information operations and media campaigns are a particular strength, the report said.
In other words, it doesn't matter what fancy COIN terminology is used, we're still playing whack-a-mole and the Taliban have taken on most of the aspects of a regional resistance movement. It's a bit reminiscent of Iraq in 2004-ish when the Bush administration insisted that every insurgent was Al Qaeda even as it became obvious to the rest of us that there weren't that many AQ members in the world.
Update: Here's the full report PDF thanks to Joshua Foust.
No comments:
Post a Comment