By Steve Hynd
Today's must-read is by Robert Wright at the NYT (h/t Balkanization). He presents evidence from a statistical studt by Jenna Jordan of the University of Chicago that "decapitation" strikes on terrorist leaders - drone attacks, for example - actually increase the viability and prestige of a terror group:
When an executive leaves a company � whether through retirement, relocation or death � what happens? Exactly: He or she gets replaced. And about half the time (in my experience, at least) the successor is more capable than the predecessor. There�s no reason to think things would work differently in a terrorist organization.
Maybe that�s why newspapers keep reporting the death of a �high ranking Al Qaeda lieutenant�; it isn�t that we keep killing the same guy, but rather that there�s an endless stream of replacements. You�re not going to end the terrorism business by putting individual terrorists out of business.
And as he notes, "the belief that death in a holy war gets you to heaven can�t hurt when you�re looking for someone to replace an assassinated leader."
This apparent policy fail, which also alienates and radicalizes civilians, also comes with too big a price to pay both foreign and domestic:
If Harold Koh � the State Department lawyer assigned the job of justifying Obama�s strategy � carries the day, America will be telling the world that it�s O.K. to lob missiles into countries that haven�t attacked you, as long as you think a terrorist may live there. Do we really want to send that message to, for example, Russia and China, both of which have terrorism problems? Or India or Pakistan?
And are we sure we want to say that, actually, due process of law isn�t really guaranteed all American citizens so long as there�s a war on terrorism � which, remember, is a war that may continue for eternity?
No, we don't.
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