The Tulip Wilts

By Dave Anderson: 

Ahh, back in the days when the color revolutions were the new black.  Every 'serious' foreign policy blogger had to get behind the massive wave of pro-western/pro-American popular revolts as a sign that Bush was Right.  

And then there is the actual march of history.

The oranges fell off the tree after a nasty frost caused by an inability to pay the gas bill.

The cedars were carved into a really nice hope chest for the wedding of the state and non-state.

And now the tulip wilts.

Krgyzstan's Tulip Revolution in 2005 put into power a pro-Western leader to replace an authoritarian, pro-Russian leader.  However President Bakiyev embraced some of the more enjoyable aspects of being a leader of a client and resource extraction state and was almost as corrupt as his predescessor while currying favor with the US by keeping open the Manas Air Base.  He is now out of power, and most likely out of the country.  Rumors abound as to where he is and how he got there, including one that the US provided some protection and sanctuary for him.  

Karl Horberg at UN Dispatch has a good precis for the cause of this crisis and abdication of power:

The word �authoritarian� will be used frequently in the coming days, but the unrest that began earlier this week in the city of Talas did not have to do with fraudulent elections or nepotism. This is not to stay Bakiyev is not authoritarian. He has stacked parliament with his supporters, has been systematically eliminatingdissidents, and recently questioned whether democracy requires elections or respect for human rights. These protests, however, are fueled by rage over basic services. Utility prices were raised last month, sparking peaceful protests in the capital. Now a few pennies extra for heat may not seem like something that justifies the overthrowing of your government. However, consider the fact that Kyrgyzstan has faced some harsh winters in the past few years, food prices are rising quickly and utilities are less than reliable. Meanwhile the president seems more concerned withanointing his son as his successor. This has made for a deadly combination that spilled out into the streets of Bishkek.

The short story is that he and his government failed to deliver on the basic necessities of life and the other guys will have a chance to do so. 

As for the US, the only intermediate term and pressing interest that the US has in Krgyz politics is access to Manas Air Base.  That airbase is one of the major logistics hubs for US forces in Afghanistan.  The US has to fly in all lethal supplies to Afghanistan as neither Pakistan nor several nations in the former USSR will allow US arms and ammo to go over their roads or rails. 

Last summer, the Krygz government used the threat of disrupting US logistics into Afghanistan by closing the Manas airbase to extract significant concessions and economic aid from the US. We should see a flurry of stories in the next couple of days in the major papers about a concerted effort to engage with the noble patriots of Krgyzstan to keep that base open.