By Dave Anderson:
The Pittsburgh machine has a mythical reputation of being able to put any of its endorsed candidates over the top in a contested primary. That myth is just that, a myth, as Pittsburgh City Council has at least four of its nine members who ran and beat endorsed candidates, including some incumbents in the past three years. I don't think Arlen Specter can count on the Pittsburgh machine to help pull his ass over the finish line with a winning plurality.
This morning, I voted at the library. The library is the polling place for two precincts that went to 70:30 for Obama in the 2008 general election. These are core Democratic precincts with above average turnout rates in the past three Democratic primaries. There should be plenty of attention and some activity at the local library for last minute persuasion/reminders.
There was one Sestak sign and two Specter signs at the front door. At 10:00AM, I was voter # 23. During the 2008 primary, I was voter #50 at 7:30AM.
I also spent a few hours in Squirrel Hill with my daughter this morning after we voted at our local library. We went to the Squirrel Hill branch library for story time. This library was also a polling location for several core Democratic precincts. I could barely tell the difference between Election Tuesday and any other rainy Tuesday in the size of the crowds at the library.
I think turnout in Pittsburgh will be low, and low turnout means a highly informed and motivated median voter. A highly informed and motivated median voter probably favors Sestak.
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