By Dave Anderson:
Mark Kleiman is passing along some very good news:
Good news: crime is
down again, by a substantial amount (7.5% for homicide). Aside from a
blip up in 2006, the decline has now been going on for a decade and a
half, and the overall decline is now greater than 50%.Better news: the incarceration rate has finally stopped growing;
this year it will probably decline. Less public hysteria about crime
might support more intelligent � more effective and less pointlessly
cruel � crime control policies. (Someone ought to write a book about
that.
The fact that crime is dropping concurrently with incarceration rates opens up space for local and state governments to look at one of the biggest pots of discretionary spending in their budgets, prisons, for savings. Intensive parole/probation, decreasing sentence lengths for non-violent crimes, pre-trial diversion programs for non-violent mentally ill defendants are some of the ways that public safety policy can be done as or more effectively and more efficiently. As long as crime rates continue to decrease, the political costs of embracing effective and non-maliciously punitive public safety policy are nil.
The political consequences of punishment reform will depend far more public fears of crime rather than the actual crime rate. If the public is scared of crime, cutting police and prison funding would be political suicide regardless of the crime rate.
ReplyDeleteBe cautious about buying into blanket efforts to reduce prison time for non-violent crimes. Both Bernie Madoff and Ken Lay committed non-violent crimes. Stealing the retirement savings of millions causes a lot more damage to society than a single armed robbery and should be punished accordingly.
Counter-intuitively number of police officers isn't particularly strongly correlated with crime rates, either.
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