Piracy and land based governance

By Dave Anderson:

Somali piracy is a medium size problem with significant media attention.  A significant portion of the global trans-regional deployable naval strength is patrolling the Horn of Africa with some minimal success of increasing the costs of piracy without actually reducing the number or value of ships seized and  ransomed.  The European Union is attempting to patrol closer in shore to reduce the search problem of finding mother ships in a massive sea to finding mother ships as they transit from known ports along several routes.  But that process will only impose a counter-piracy tax on the pirates for they will go to sea as long as it is profitable and they have a secure land base to support their activities:

Piracy is a sympton of land based disorder. If pirates do not have secure ports where they can rest, re-fuel, re-arm, recruit and ransom their prizes, then the economic case for piracy disappears very quickly. Most of the time local governments clamp down on any hint of piracy because attacking third party merchant shipping is an act of war or at the very least, an admission of a very weak government...

If the trading powers determine that piracy and the free flow of trade over the high seas is the overwhelming interest that they truly have in East Africa, then recognizing land based realities will be the most effective way to re-assert some semblence of control on the ground which will reduce piracy from a nuisance to an annoyance. We have some evidence that any land based government that actually is at least first amongst equals has the ability and the willingness to crack down on pirates when the ICU took power before the Ethiopians invaded.

The Islamic Courts Union dramatically reduced piracy when they took control of Somalia and acted as a minimal but effective government with a near monopoly on force in 2006.  And then the Ethiopians invaded and the ICU fractured into multiple Islamic insurgent groups.  But it looks like the Islamists are re-consolidating their control over the central Somali coast as Eagle Speaks passes along an interesting piece from Voice of America:

Reported by the VOA as Somali Insurgent Group Seizes Pirate Stronghold:

The Somali insurgent group Hizbul Islam has seized control of Harardheere, a pirate stronghold on Somalia's eastern coast.

Witnesses say insurgents driving at least 10 armed vehicles entered Harardheere without a fight Sunday, after pirates fled the town.

Men who describe themselves as pirates say Hizbul Islam sent agents to the town on Friday, demanding a cut of the pirates' business.

They say pirate leaders had ignored the request, prompting Hizbul Islam to send in its fighters.

Hizbul Islam looks like they were either attempting to shut down piracy in the port, or at least impose a significant income tax on the piracy. It was willing to use armed force to collect its revenue stream. The pirates decided to move as much of their mobile capital north (three ships waiting to be ransomed) and concede that Hizbul Islam has a monopoly on force in Haradheere and the ability to collect taxes.

This is proto-state formation where the locals decide who is the toughest group that supplies some public goods such as local security and therefore local legitimacy is gained.  It is this local legitimacy which is the basis for any governance that is effective.  Local, land based governance that connects the local elites with the broader world is the leverage point that could significantly reduce piracy without the continous large-scale naval deployments that are ineffecient at the task. 

The big problem is that most of the groups that have the capacity to establish limited, local monopolies on force are Islamist groups.  US domestic politics will not allow for the possibility that the US will work with local Islamist groups on areas of mutual interest (surpressing Somali piracy through the provision of effective albeit harsh governance on the coast).  So instead, we'll see a continual drip, drip, drip of ships being taken, navies steam in ever frustrating circles, and US backed proxies fight to hold onto a few square blocks in the capital.