By Dave Anderson:
One of my cheap little analytical tricks to predict what the US would do in Iraq was to look at what the British were doing and then add a few years. The British withdrew from Iraq in 2009. The US is looking to get combat units out by the end of this summer, and down to a token force under a new SOFA by the start of 2012. The Brits admitted they were strategically immobile and had no swing capacity without massive force reset problems in 2004. The US went the massive force reset problems in 2007 as units and individuals were going back for twelve, fifteen and eighteen month tours after less than a year out of combat. The Brits were cutting force structure in their navy and air force to pay for ongoing operations. The US is cutting force structure in the navy and air force to pay for ongoing operations now.
The British are smaller and poorer than the US, but they maintain a military that is at least a funhouse mirror version of the US military; professional, high-tech, and expeditionary, so it is a reasonable analogue and comparison. Britain also has a political culture that is embedded within the North Atlantic paradigm and it is home to the Anglo-Saxon business model. British political leadership faces some of the same constraints and incentives as the US political leadership, but feel them slightly more acutely.
This leads to my prediction that the US will not withdraw from Afghanistan until at least 2016. The Guardian reports that Prime Minister Cameron wants British forces out by 2015, hopefully before the next general election:
David Cameron today gave the first clear indication of the timing for a full withdrawal of British soldiers from Afghanistan, saying that he wanted troops home within five years.
Asked in Canada at the Toronto G8 summit if he wanted UK forces home before the 2015 general election, he said: "I want that to happen, make no mistake about it. We can't be there for another five years, having been there for nine years already."
So I expect the US to stick around for another year or two after the Brits leave because we can, and the greatest sin in American politics is admitting to reality that there are constraints and limits on American power. We need a decent interval to assuage our consciences that we truly are #1 and unconstrained by structural forces.
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