McChrystal: Once A Petulant Jerk... (Updated)

By Steve Hynd

By now, there's a good chance you've already heard about or read Rolling Stone's profile of General Stanley McChrystal and his staff, The Runaway General. It's certainly burning up the Memeorandum aggregator right now. If you haven't read it, you should.

In the piece, McChrytal's staff come across as a bunch of loudmouthed and badly behaved jerks led by a man who honestly believes that he's the smartest man in any room. McChrystal and Co. happily run their mouths about everyone, from Obama and Biden on down to French cabinet ministers and gays. The article has led McChrystal to be summoned to Washington to explain himself in the Oval Office and the Rolling Stone managing editor has noted that McChrystal isn't disputing the factual accuracy of the reporting by Michael Hastings.

Dana pointed to McChrystal's own response to the article as a verification of the magazine's reporting.

"He didn't retract anything, he just said, 'I shouldn't have cooperated with them.' I take that as an endorsement of the factual accuracy of the story. If there were inaccuracies we'd have people crawling all over us by now."

And so the big question is: will McChrystal be fired for this?

There's certainly enough reason to do so, but I don't think so, reading between the lines of SecDef Gates' statement (emphasis mine):

"I read with concern the profile piece on Gen. Stanley McChrystal in the upcoming edition of �Rolling Stone� magazine.  I believe that Gen. McChrystal made a significant mistake and exercised poor judgment in this case.  We are fighting a war against al Qaeda and its extremist allies, who directly threaten the United States, Afghanistan, and our friends and allies around the world.  Going forward, we must pursue this mission with a unity of purpose.  Our troops and coalition partners are making extraordinary sacrifices on behalf of our security, and our singular focus must be on supporting them and succeeding in Afghanistan without such distractions.  Gen. McChrystal has apologized to me and is similarly reaching out to others named in this article to apologize to them as well.  I have recalled Gen. McChrystal to Washington to discuss this in person."

In my experience, that's the kind of statement managers issue when they're giving a petulant jerk a final, written, warning. It's not the kind they make when they're looking to fire someone. It's full of language suggesting the miscreant realises his mistake, is sorry, and won't let it happen again. What it doesn't contain is anything suggesting the miscreant has crossed a line. So, I expect that McChrystal will get some kind of reprimand on his record, but won't get canned.

Bringing political strategy into it, as it must, that's probably how the White House is thinking too. If McChrystal gets fired for insubordination, even despite his previous record of speaking - and leaking - out, then the G.O.P. and Democrat hawks will always say that the mission in Afghanistan suffered because of it and will make political hay from that conjecture. From the White House's point of view, better to wait another six months, perhaps, and fire McChrystal for actually failing.

Update: Alex Lobov has much the same thoughts I do on this:

One one hand, it�s clear insubordination and to not fire the General will make Obama look terribly weak, as well as setting a negative precedent for future disgruntled men in uniform. On the other hand, Obama does not need another high-profile fracas for the GOP to exploit, given that they are likely to back McChrystal and his hawkish plans for COIN and Afghanistan. With the mid-terms looming and Obama already looking politically fragile, he doesn�t need more pain by looking soft on Afghanistan and National Security. It seems Obama is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Here�s what I think Obama will do. I predict that Obama will let things slide with McChrystal but muzzle him for the rest of his tenure.

And Robert Dreyfuss is disappointed that Gates' statement basically calls McChrystals insubordination "just an oops", writing that "President Obama ought to fire Gates, too."

Update 2: Reuters spots press secretary Gibbs' signal that there'll be no firing just yet:

"I'm sure that the president will say tomorrow that it is time for everybody to put aside their petty disagreements, put aside their egos and get to work," Gibbs said.

Which is exactly what any decent manager would say when the "written warning" or "conversation confirmer" is issued. Next slip, though...