Revisiting the 3-fold bet

By Dave Anderson:

The Democrats have made a three fold bet on how they can hold onto their majorities this fall.  The bet's upside is solely limited to minimizing losses and surprise losses.  Republicans will gain seats as the economy alternates between blowing chunks and sucking, as well as the political geography of contested seats are on traditionally Republican leaning districts.  The bet is simple:

• Discredited Republican Party will make swing voters hold their noses before voting GOP or voting at all.


• Teabagger v. Establishment Republican civil war


• Democrats would maintain the money edge

Republicans are still viewed less favorably than Democrats in almost all polling. Voting for a Republican by a marginally attached voter will require significant nose holding and motivation. That marginally attached voter may decide not to vote at all.

The Democrats have lucked into a few Tea Partier winning or influencing Republican primaries so what should have been gimme seats for the Republicans in Nevada and Kentucky are now competitive seats.  The Tea Partiers forced Crist to do the smart thing and run as an independent in Florida and increasingly as the de facto Democrat as he is grabbing a good chunk of his support from the Democratic nominee.  

Finally, as of the May 2010 reports, the three major Democratic committees have a 3:2 money edge on the three major Republican committees.  Democratic candidates also have a significant cash on hand edge over Republican candidates in the aggregate.  

The major conditions of the bet are being met.  So what are the results so far?  

Nate Silver at 538 has recently updated his Senate forecast.  His data and analysis shows the bet is paying off, specifically, the Tea Partiers are helping the Democrats minimize their scope of losses:

Democratic fortunes were improved by the primaries in Nevada and Pennsylvania, California, North Carolina, and Kentucky, and worsened probably only in Arkansas (and South Carolina, which they had almost no chance of winning anyway.) This accounts for most of the movement in the rankings. Whereas, as of our last update, or simulations were projecting an average of 54.0 Democratic and 46.0 Republican seats, we now show 55.2 Democrats, 44.2 Republicans, and 0.6 Charlie Crists....

In April, or model showed a 6 percent chance of a Republican takeover; this month, it shows an identical 6 percent chance, provided that Charlie Crist is counted as a Republican, and roughly a 4 percent chance if he isn't. 

In the Senate, the results may be ugly, but the bet looks like it could be paying off. And who cares if the Democrats lose the House, the Blue Dogs will become the junior coalition partner to the Republicans which will keep their parking spaces and suburban subsidies while the liberals, progressives and troublemakers who keep on being right can be told to suck on it as it is their fault that no one listened to them on policy.