Most favored cartels and car bombs

By Dave Anderson:

Escalation in violence and expansion of tactics is often the steps taken by a group that is losing a fight.  I have thought that systemic attacks on Mexican state and economic infrastructure would be initially engaged by groups that are losing ground under the current set of rules and norms that limit violence to personal weapons.  

One of the options for managing violence in northern Mexico is for the government to embrace a most favored cartel (mfc).  Since at least April of this year, the Sinaloa cartel has been rumored to be a contender for the spot of the most favored cartel. The argument is that there is a tacit agreement that the MFC and the Mexican government would cooperate with each other to suppress other cartels.  The MFC would agree to divert some of its kickbacks to the relevant governmental elites as well as maintain urban security with a tolerable and much lower level of violence as its competitors would no longer be alive or competing with it. 

If this is true, or perceived to be true by groups that are getting pushed out of their turf and their market space by a combination of Sinaloa Cartel and government pressure, then escalation is a reasonable alternative to surrender and death.  And it appears that the car bomb in Juarez is part of a strategy or at least a PR push to wedge the government from the perceived MFC.  The El-Paso Times has more:

The
unsigned message told the FBI and the U.S. Drug Enforcement
Administration to investigate authorities that support the Sinaloa drug
cartel.

Otherwise, there will be another car bomb placed in Ju�z
to kill federal police, the threat stated.

"If in 15 days, there
is no response with detention of corrupt federales, we will put a car
with 100 kilos of C4," the message read.

100 kilograms of C-4 or more likely commercial grade Tovex plastic explosive is the size of a market-busting, high fatality car bomb that we routinely see in Iraq.  If an attack is aimed at hard target such as a Mexican Army base compound, it should breach the walls and cause significant casualties.  If such an attack is aimed at soft targets such as a market, a park or a soccer field, civilian casualties could be very high.  Either way, if an attack goes off in the next couple of weeks, it is a predictable escalation of violence from losing groups.  From there, economic systems disruption is not too far of a step.