First US Combat Casualty In Iraq Post-"Combat Troop" Withdrawal

By Steve Hynd

The first post-media-spin US casualty in Iraq only took three days to arrive.

An American soldier was killed by a rocket strike near Basra today, in the first US fatality since the last combat troops left Iraq.

...Details of the incident were not released, but Basra airport base, which is still home to about 4,000 US forces, had experienced increased numbers of rocket attacks in recent weeks as the deadline drew near for the withdrawal of combat troops. Two soldiers suffered minor wounds in a rocket strike early last week, and rockets have hit the Green Zone in Baghdad almost daily for the past month.

As I wrote Thursday, It's not an "end to the combat mission", it's a re-branding for domestic political purposes.

As The Guardian's piece linked above makes clear, Iraqis are worried that security is already collapsing back to 2008 (and earlier) levels. But that was always going to happen no matter how long the US stays in Iraq and no matter how many troops - "combat" or otherwise - were committed. "The Surge" was always designed just to paper over the cracks long enough to justify heading for the exits without losing face, and even General Odierno refuses to say it was a clear win any longer.

General Odierno said today it could take years to determine if the US-led invasion was a success. "A strong, democratic Iraq will bring stability to the Middle East, and if we see an Iraq that's moving toward that, two, three, five years from now I think we can call our operations a success," he said.

This is also how the Afghan war will progress. It doesn't matter how long the US stays, at what cost in blood and treasure. But, like Iraq, it would be insanity to say we must stay forever because we broke their country. It's up to Iraqis to decide what their country will look like and should be up to Afghans for their own nation too. For better or worse.

The real Pottery Barn rule is, and has always been: "You broke it, you pay for it and get the f**k out of our store." At that point, it's up to the store owners whether they rebuild, re-open as a different kind of shop or burn the whole edifice down around their own ears.

Update: Gen. Odierno says that it's highly unlikely that the remaining US troops in Iraq would go back to combat operations.

With a major military milestone in sight, Gen. Ray Odierno said in interviews broadcast Sunday that any resumption of combat duties by American forces is unlikely.

"We don't see that happening," Odierno said. The Iraqi security forces have been doing "so well for so long now that we really believe we're beyond that point."

But it occurred to me that if those troops are hunkering on their bases and dying an inch at a time while local militants send rocket and mortar fire their way, there's shortly going to be a lot of anger about that - especially on the Right. Maybe Odierno needs to clarify what he means by "combat duties".