Phase III

Commentary By Ron Beasley

"In Blowback, I set out to explain why we are hated around the world. The concept "blowback" does not just mean retaliation for things our government has done to and in foreign countries. It refers to retaliation for the numerous illegal operations we have carried out abroad that were kept totally secret from the American public. This means that when the retaliation comes - as it did so spectacularly on September 11, 2001 - the American public is unable to put the events in context. So they tend to support acts intended to lash out against the perpetrators, thereby most commonly preparing the ground for yet another cycle of blowback. In the first book in this trilogy, I tried to provide some of the historical background for understanding the dilemmas we as a nation confront today, although I focused more on Asia - the area of my academic training - than on the Middle East."

~Chalmers Johnson

There are two posts today that build on Chalmers Johnson's recent post at TomDispatch, The Guns of August.  The first is by Owen Gray at The Moderate Voice.

In a recent article at TomDispatch, Chalmers reevaluates American foreign policy, almost fifty years after Barbara Tuchman�s The Guns of August was first published. And he asks the question which no one else dares to ask:

What harm would befall the United States if we actually decided, against all odds, to close those hundreds and hundreds of bases, large and small, that we garrison around the world? What if we actually dismantled our empire, and came home? Would Genghis Khan-like hordes descend on us?

He then answers that question: �Not likely. . . .the main fears you might hear in Washington � if anyone bothered to wonder what would happen should we begin to dismantle our empire � would prove but chimeras.�

That is not to say that Washington would then cast aside a hornet�s nest of troubles:

In fact, we would still be a large and powerful nation-state with a host of internal and external problems. An immigration and drug crisis on our southern border, soaring health-care costs, a weakening education system, an aging population, an aging infrastructure, an unending recession � none of these are likely to go away soon, nor are any of them likely to be tackled in a serious or successful way as long as we continue to spend our wealth on armies, weapons, wars, global garrisons and bribes for petty dictators.

But there is an alternative. It is, says Chalmers, to invest in productive, not destructive, industries and to invest in America�s infrastructure and its people. �Unfortunately,� he writes, �I don�t see that happening.

The US could begin to dismantle it's empire and like the British and the French the country might survive.  An attempt to continue the empire will not only result in the collapse of that empire but the country itself.

Dave Cohen at Decline of the Empire references Johnson's piece but in addition takes a look at Libertarian David Redick's analysis of the rise and fall of empires.

How Will Our Decline & Fall Proceed?

But how will our Decline & Fall proceed? I first explored this topic in Is The Empire's Collapse Gradual Or Sudden? I'd like to revisit that subject today because of some recent articles I've seen. It is gratifying to see others exploring this question in so far as almost all Americans would object strenuously to the idea that the United States is an Empire, let alone a waning one. (People easily adapt to gradual deterioration over decades.)

David Redick of Activist Post lays out a long, overly-specified view of the historical stages empires pass through in The Phases Of Empire�

The analysis below explains why all empires and "Imperial Style" governments have failed throughout history, and why our Empire-USA faces the same fate. The only question is whether the people and government of the USA have the wisdom and will to engage in a "Managed Decline" by terminating the empire and imperial conduct on their own schedule, rather than by chaotic crash of the US Dollar, economy, and lifestyle.

Now Redick is a Libertarian and I'm not so I would disagree with some of domestic solutions but his over all ideas on the three phases of an empire are pretty close to the mark.

• Phase 1 - Growth


• Phase 2 - Maturation


• Phase 3 - Decline and/or failure

I would agree the US is in Phase 3.  Redick and Johnson agree that the only possible solution is a managed decline, terminating the empire before the country itself is terminated by collapse.  In addition they both agree that terminating the empire voluntarily is in the cards.

I am reminded of the review I did a few weeks ago of Joseph Tainter's - The Collapse of Complex Societies:

Tainter says that the only solution for over complexity is
simplification but complex systems are unable to voluntarily simplify.
Collapse is nothing more than involuntary simplification.