Petraeus - All Hat, No Cattle?

By Steve Hynd

Perhaps the most disturbing part of ABC's exclusive interview with General David Petraeus is his "cowboys driving the cattle home" metaphor.

He pointed to a Frederick Remington print on the wall of his office in Kabul, called "The Stampede".

"If you look at that print, you'll see that there's a cowboy and he's trying to keep up with this herd that is flat out for glory across very rocky soil."

"There's a lightning bolt coming in from the sky. That might be an enemy attack, a tasker from higher headquarters, who knows what? It's raining sideways. The stormy -- sky and clouds and so forth. And -- you know, the brim of his hat is back, he's galloping so rapidly. And I said, 'This is our experience. We're all outriders. There's a few of us that are trail bosses. The cattle, if you will, are sort of the tasks. Getting the cattle to the destination means that you've accomplished various missions along the way. I note that some of the cattle who get out ahead of us, and that's okay, we'll catch up with them."

"Some will fall behind, we'll go back and get them. There will be casualties along the way. There are bad guys out there trying to kill us and to kill the cattle and so forth. And again, it's a metaphorical image-- that I have used to describe again that I am reasonably comfortable with a somewhat chaotic situation, at times. And I think that helps, certainly, in a job like this one."

Didn't we get enough of this cowboy bullshit (pun intended) from George W. Bush? And "flat out for glory"? You have to be kidding, General. In the same interview, Petraeus conceded that a war that has lasted nine years already could easily last nine or ten years more.

And that's if - big if - the "cattle" do what Petraeus and the other "cowboy outriders" tell them to. Despite Petraeus' claims that the Karzai government are just as interested in fighting corruption as he is:

To recall that in -- recent years, indeed even in recent months -- various elements of -- of President Karzai's government have -- taken a number of actions against corruption. The chief justice has hired hundreds of judicial workers put a number of judges in jail. The Minister of Finance has fired literally in recent weeks, actually, just dozens of customs officials, as he's gone out after receiving the news that that kind of corrupt activity that you've just described.

The commander of the western border police is a brigadier general is now in jail. And was recently convicted a few weeks ago. A very important provincial chief -- police chief just put in jail. Another one fired, a governor fired and so forth. So, there's actually been quite a bit of activity -- in the realm of anti-corruption. Having said that, President Karzai is the first -- to state publicly that more needs to be done. He gave quite an -- impassioned -- discussion of this. In -- his Kabul Conference remarks.

The New York Times today reports that:

New corruption prosecutions have ground to a halt here as the result of a protracted dispute within the government over the limits of American-backed investigators who have pursued high-ranking Afghans, according to American and Afghan officials.

The last arrest by corruption investigators was seven weeks ago, of a top official in President Karzai�s government, which by the Afghan president�s own account led him to intervene and win the suspect�s release from detention.

And yesterday the Washington Post reported that a rift with Karzai was prompting the Obama administration to step back from fighting Afghan corruption.

To borrow from the Real Estate world, there are three essential factors in any COIN success: the local government needs legitimacy, legitimacy and legitimacy. Without that, Petraeus will be chasing strays until the cows come home.

Update: The Afghan Central Bank has stepped in and taken over Kabul Bank in a rescue bid, which was going broke after a run on the bank began when reports about the incredible corruption of its officials hit prime-time. The officials include one of Karzai's brothers. Git along, lil' doggie!