By John and Kat
The United States of Inequality by Timothy Noah
Timothy Noah kicked off this series by looking at whether race, gender, or the breakdown of the nuclear family affected income inequality, and then he examined immigration, the technology boom, federal government policy, the decline of labor unions, international trade, whether the ultra wealthy are to blame, and what role the decline of K-12 education has played. In conclusion, Noah explained why we can't ignore income inequality.
Income inequality in the United States has not worsened steadily since 1915. It dropped a bit in the late teens, then started climbing again in the 1920s, reaching its peak just before the 1929 crash. The trend then reversed itself. Incomes started to become more equal in the 1930s and then became dramatically more equal in the 1940s. Income distribution remained roughly stable through the postwar economic boom of the 1950s and 1960s. Economic historians Claudia Goldin and Robert Margo have termed this midcentury era the "Great Compression." The deep nostalgia for that period felt by the World War II generation�the era of Life magazine and the bowling league�reflects something more than mere sentimentality. Assuming you were white, not of draft age, and Christian, there probably was no better time to belong to America's middle class.
The Great Compression ended in the 1970s. Wages stagnated, inflation raged, and by the decade's end, income inequality had started to rise. Income inequality grew through the 1980s, slackened briefly at the end of the 1990s, and then resumed with a vengeance in the aughts. In his 2007 book The Conscience of a Liberal, the Nobel laureate, Princeton economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman labeled the post-1979 epoch the "Great Divergence."
It's generally understood that we live in a time of growing income inequality, but "the ordinary person is not really aware of how big it is," Krugman told me. During the late 1980s and the late 1990s, the United States experienced two unprecedentedly long periods of sustained economic growth�the "seven fat years" and the " long boom." Yet from 1980 to 2005, more than 80 percent of total increase in Americans' income went to the top 1 percent. Economic growth was more sluggish in the aughts, but the decade saw productivity increase by about 20 percent. Yet virtually none of the increase translated into wage growth at middle and lower incomes, an outcome that left many economists scratching their heads.
- The Usual Suspects Are Innocent Neither race nor gender nor the breakdown of the American family created the Great Divergence.
- Did Immigration Create the Great Divergence? Why we can't blame income inequality on the post-1965 immigration surge.
- Did Computers Create Inequality? No. The tech boom's impact was no greater than that of previous technological upheavals during the 20th century.
- Can We Blame Income Inequality on Republicans? Yes, but for the very richest beneficiaries the trend has been bipartisan.
- The Great Divergence and the Death of Organized Labor How has the decline of the union contributed to income inequality?
- The Stinking Rich and the Great Divergence Executive compensation took off in the 1980s and 1990s. Is it to blame?
- How the Decline in K-12 Education Enriches College Graduates When the workforce needed to be smarter, Americans got dumber.
- Why We Can't Ignore Growing Income Inequality It undermines the ideal of e pluribus unum.
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Notice how capital gains look on paper. Capital gains are by definition "paper profits," over and above other income, and do not fluctuate wildly apart from ordinary income. A relatively small number of wealthy people escape the income tax by living exclusively on capital gains, but capital gains are by definition a reflection of investment activity, without which the economy stagnates.
This "Top Decile" charts softens an obscene reality of how badly income inequality is really skewed. When it comes to digging for gold, wealthy people always seem to have shovels -- really big shovels -- while everyone else is working with tablespoons. That is reason for highlighting at the top of this post.
I, for one, am not "scratching my head." It is clear to me that as long as newly produced wealth is grabbed by the rich and powerful in proportionally greater amounts than others, there is little hope that income inequality will ever shift in favor of those with nothing. I don't have as much problem with lower capital gains taxes as with income taxes that enable those with vast assets to add to already mammoth nest eggs.
Timothy Noah gets the last word.
Heightened partisanship in Washington and declining trust in government have many causes (and the latter slide predates the Great Divergence). But surely the growing income chasm between the poor and middle class and the rich, between the Sort of Rich and the Rich, and even between the Rich and the Stinking Rich, make it especially difficult to reestablish any spirit of e pluribus unum. Republicans and Democrats compete to show which party more fervently opposes the elite, with each side battling to define what "elite" means. In a more equal society, the elite would still be resented. But I doubt that opposing it would be an organizing principle of politics to the same extent that it is today.
I find myself returning to the gut-level feeling expressed at the start of this series: I do not wish to live in a banana republic. There is a reason why, in years past, Americans scorned societies starkly divided into the privileged and the destitute. They were repellent. Is it my imagination, or do we hear less criticism of such societies today in the United States? Might it be harder for Americans to sustain in such discussions the necessary sense of moral superiority?
What is the ideal distribution of income in society? I couldn't tell you, and historically much mischief has been accomplished by addressing this question too precisely. But I can tell you this: We've been headed in the wrong direction for far too long.
When I highlighted the piece over at my place a week or so ago I left the following comment:
ReplyDeleteI recommend the series to my readers without reservation, and note that Mr. North's sections on the United State's education system, immigration, and the long decline of American labor unions are of particular worth. His section on executive compensation and the financial sector is befouled by an err common to liberal pundits: North places much of the blame for the finance industry's skewed incentive structure on the industry's deregulation, a culprit not half so villainous as the Federal government's many interventions to reduce risk and assume losses (the Mexican bail-outs, Greenspan's artificially low interests rates, the nationalization of AIG, etc.) on the behalf of major industry players. The failure to take this American proclivity for "privatizing gains and socializing losses" into account is by far the greatest weakness of Mr. North's arguments.
Despite this oversight, it is a series well worth the reading.
Don't imagine that many readers here at NewsHoggers will agree with me on this one, but I am interested in hearing what you think 'bout my proposed revision to Mr. North's otherwise excellent argument.
Regarding where to assign the most responsibility, I'm agnostic. It's hard to ascribe "blame" without implying a lack of character or good faith and there seem to be principled arguments for and against better regulation. Most of the historic milestones were creatures of compromises which by definition sacrifice principles for political expediency.
ReplyDeleteThere seems to be enough old-fashioned criminal behavior without second-guessing what might be called good faith attempts to keep the economy out of the ditches. This most recent rash of counterfeit documents with robo-signatures is the latest in a string of arrangements behind which no amount of arguments can hide.
My favorite footnote to the so-called "mortgage crisis" (which is really a debt crisis) is the example of a few community banks near Amish communities who have escaped all the problems. Why? They couldn't sell mortgages on any aftermarket because the houses didn't have electricity and were not in compliance with what mortgage holders require. As a consequence they are forced to do business the old-fashioned way, holding the notes to maturity. And do they care? Nope. That population is famously reliable at paying off debts. (Also not allowing "income inequality" to compromise their quality of life.)