By Dave Anderson:
One of the major problems in the US economy is that most personal balance sheets are crappy right now. They are slowly improving from their worst state as some bad debts are being discharged and some debts are being paid down. However most people are still concentrating their marginal dollars on balance sheet clean-up by either saving the money or paying down expensive debts.
A fairly simple way to accelerate personal balance sheet clean-up in the US economy is for their to be nominal wage growth and nominal economic growth in addition to the current real growth. A decent bit of inflation makes paying back a fixed rate nominal debt much easier in the intermediate run. Moderate wage and income growth in the form of inflation plus real wage gains makes it easier for families to either pay back the same percentage of their nominal income to debt service, which would accelerate the clean-up, or to pay the same nominal amount while increasing their consumption elsewhere.
The mild losers in a world of 3% or 4% inflation and 6% or 7% non-inflation adjusted growth are the bond holders who are betting on 1.0% or less inflation over the intermediate term.
A Federal Reserve principal wants to make the little people suck on it and continue the transfer of wealth from the bottom 90% to the top 10% by aggressively seeking to opportunistically disinflate the economy:
[I]nflation is now on target, as far as I'm concerned. Over the last 12 months the price index for personal consumption expenditure has risen 1.5 percent, which is exactly what I've been recommending for the last six years....
Calculated Risk notes that his inflation index is significantly higher than the two major inflation measures used by most analysts. But the short take-away is that a major, albeit, non-voting member of the Federal Reserve is keen to be an inflation hawk even when the economy needs a decent jolt of inflation. No inflation or deflation is a means of enriching the creditor class by drying out the debtor classes.
We can suck on it.
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