But...But...The Surge Worked In Iraq, Right?

By Steve Hynd

It's a convenient lie for a Western elite - that Iraq is now on the way to being a stable nation once again thanks to Petraeus' magical surge ponies. But refugees from Iraq would tell another story. Out of 2 million who left, only about 25% ever returned - and of that, only 100,000 since 2008 (*) - - now even those returnees are leaving again.

A second exodus has begun here, of Iraqis who returned after fleeing the carnage of the height of the war, but now find that violence and the nation�s severe lack of jobs are pulling them away from home once again.

Since the American invasion in 2003, refugees have been a measure of the country�s precarious condition, flooding outward during periods of violence and trickling back as Iraq seemed to stabilize. This new migration shows how far the nation remains from being stable and secure.

...In a recent survey by the United Nations refugee office, 61 percent of those who returned to Baghdad said they regretted coming back, most saying they did not feel safe. The majority, 87 percent, said they could not make enough money here to support their families. Applications for asylum in Syria have risen more than 50 percent since May.

As Iraq struggles toward a return to stability, these returnees risk becoming people without a country, displaced both at home and abroad. And though departures have ebbed since 2008, a wave of recent attacks on Christians has prompted a new exodus.

Mr. Obeidi, who used his tribe�s name instead of his father�s name as a surname, left for Syria in 2006 after an improvised bomb exploded near his nephew, terrifying the boy, and insurgents threatened to kill Mr. Obeidi. On a recent evening in Baghdad, he had trouble controlling his breathing as he talked about the daily blasts in his neighborhood.

�There�s no security here,� he said, ticking off his close encounters with guns and bombs. �I was near a female suicide bomber a couple months ago. Then I was in my brother�s truck when insurgents opened fire on a bridge. My friend was killed in front of me with a knife. I�ve been destroyed. My mother needs an operation for her eyes, and I don�t have money. We need someone to help us.�

�Feel my stomach,� he said. �It�s like a rock. It�s going to blow out.�

If the Surge did anything more than paper over the cracks, these people haven't noticed. Their lives would be just as terrible if the Surge had never happened and the US had withdrawn all its troops in 2007 or if the US now stayed in Iraq forever. The only difference would be that billions of dollars and hundreds of other lives would not have been wasted providing a figleaf of cover to politicians and careerist generals, so that they never had to use the word "defeat".

Now, we're being told - not asked - to accept the same thing in Afghanistan. We shouldn't.

(*) Line edited after comment from JWing below.