It's Official - "Peak Oil" Was In 2006

By Steve Hynd

The International Energy Agency says production of conventional crude oil peaked in 2006 and can be expected to fall sharply from now on. However,

The agency does not see energy doom on the horizon, however. By its estimation, after a short dip in production, crude production will reach an �undulating plateau� of about 68 million barrels per day between 2020 and 2035.

That rose-glassed estimation is based on some heavy wishful thinking about crude deposits yet to be discovered or developed, though, as this graph illustrates:

 

So, what now?

Its current estimate that enough new oil will be found to keep the oil supply roughly steady for the next 25 years is hardly ironclad, however, a point the report acknowledges in the executive summary. �Will peak oil be a guest or the spectre at the feast?� its authors ask.

�The size of ultimately recoverable resources of both conventional and unconventional oil is a major source of uncertainty for the long-term outlook for world oil production,� it concludes.

Over all, oil prices should continue to climb in coming decades, reaching $135 per barrel by 2035, a price level that some economists believe contributed to the global economic collapse of 2008.

Some experts found the report�s projections troubling.

�It�s a perfect storm headed our way � a steady rise in global demand for oil crashing up against an increasingly limited supply of economically recoverable oil,� William Chameides, professor of environmental science at Duke University, wrote on his blog.

Ouch.