By Dave Anderson:
Yep, the thought that the US would be 99% out of Iraq by 2012 looks like a fantasy despite repeated campaign promises that would be the case. This time, the US will voluntarily stay if some elements of the Iraqi government wants the US to act as their bully boys against domestic opponents:
The U.S. defense secretary says the U.S. is willing to keep troops in Iraq past the current deadline, but only if that is what Iraq's leaders want.
Robert Gates made the comment to reporters in Kuala Lumpur Tuesday after a meeting with Malaysia's defense minister.
The current agreement calls for U.S. troops to leave Iraq by the end of 2011.
A rising wave of violence has prompted U.S. and Iraqi officials to express a willingness to revisit the deal. But Gates said any request would have to come from a functioning Iraqi government....
Significant elements of the current Maliki government and even more significant elements of the projected future Maliki government have made their local bones as being strongly anti-American occupation and presence in Iraq. The primary groups that have engaged in long term armed combat against the Iraqi government security forces have an overriding political objective of forcing the US out of Iraq. AQI had local legitimacy when it was seen as a useful adjunct in fighting against an occupying army but it lost its legitimacy when the locals decided they were a greater threat to their local networks than the US as the US was making noises that it was willing to leave over the intermediate term. So when AQI continues to politically isolate itself by setting off random car bombs, the US response is to help relegitimatize them as an acceptable anti-occupation force with the offer of keeping more US troops in Iraq over the long term.
Wonderful non-strategic thinking here....
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