By Dave Anderson:
The Republicans have a trifecta in Pennsylvania. This means they can get pretty aggressive in the 2012 redistricting. The easiest way for them to do so is to unpack the 17th Congressional District (which is 17 points more Republican than the national average) while packing Democracts into four urban districts.
Right now it looks like the Democrats will hold Pittsburgh and Philadelphia and lose most of the suburban ring districts that are currently swing districts. The Philadelphia suburban swing districts (6,7,and 8) are slightly Democratic leaning in a neutral environment while the Pittsburgh swing districts (4 and 12) are slightly Republican leaning in a neutral environment.
Unpacking the 17th of Republican voters and shifting them into a single north/east Pittsburgh suburban/exurban district while sending the Pittsburgh anchored 14th further into the Mon Valley and down the Ohio River towards Ambridge and Aliquippa will create one super Democratic district and a pair of solid Republican districts (R+9 or 10.) This takes care of the net loss of one House seat due to population loss.
In the eastern part of the state, the Democrats are already tightly packed into two districts anchored in Philadelphia. Both of those seats are more than thirty points more Democratic than the nation as a whole. The Democratic objective if they had a say in redistricting would have been to spread the Philadelphia votes out into the suburban swing districts. That will not happen. Any Democratic bastion on the Main Line suburbs will be dumped into the 1st and 2nd Districts so we could potentially see a D+40 seat if the map makers are determined enough.
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