By Dave Anderson:
Ian Welsh notes the non-farm payroll employment report changes the first derivative from negative (things are still getting worse) to zero (break-even):
151,000 jobs were gained last month. 150K is the break-even point given population gain to maintain employment. This is neither a good nor a bad figure.
Zero on the first derivative and a positive second derivative is a definate improvement over a negative first derivative and a positive second derivative that was the primary Obama economic team talking point for most of the past year, but the employment hole is huge and while breaking even is better than digging deeper, it is still just breaking even. Population growth combined with net job losses means we need to see nine million or more jobs to get to an employment:population ratio that is equal to the last peak. And it is only at that point there is a chance for market forces to increase real and nominal wages.
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