By Dave Anderson
This month's employment report was crap. Total non-farm payrolls were up 39,000. We need to see at least 100,000 more net new jobs per month to keep up with population growth, so the unemployed are facing even more competition for the few jobs that are opening up than they did last month. Retail employment decreased despite the expectation that Christmas sales are supposed to be reasonably higher than last year, and significantly higher than the crater of 2008.
Most interestingly to me is a quick glance at the government employment levels. Federal and state governments have basically broken even in employment levels, although they have shrunk proportionally to the entire employment universe. However, the area of greatest change is local governments.
Nov. 2009 | Sept. 2010 | Oct. 2010(p) | Nov. 2010(p) | Change from: Oct. 2010- Nov. 2010(p) | YoY | |
Government | 22507 | 22260 | 22272 | 22261 | -11 | -246 |
Federal | 2833 | 2843 | 2835 | 2837 | 2 | 4 |
State government | 5172 | 5170 | 5182 | 5183 | 1 | 11 |
Local government | 14502 | 14247 | 14255 | 14241 | -14 | -261 |
Local government education | 8054.1 | 7893.4 | 7914.6 | 7910.4 | -4.2 | -143.7 |
Local government, excluding education | 6448 | 6353.4 | 6340.5 | 6330 | -10.5 | -118 |
Local governments are getting hammered right now. Education is not being exempted. Year over year, education employment cuts have been roughly proportional to the employment levels of the local government work force.
Local governments and school districts are the governmental units that are the most dependent on property taxes and also the units that tend to have the least amount of flexibility to get away from any balanced budget constraints. As long as property values will remain low, local governments will continue to be hammered. And even after property values increase, local tax collections will lag the growth in base values as reassessments lag reality.
No comments:
Post a Comment