Clinton Fail: "Our assessment is that the Egyptian government is stable"

By Steve Hynd

Here's what Hillary Clinton is saying:

We support the fundamental right of expression and assembly for all people and we urge that all parties exercise restraint and refrain from violence. Our assessment is that the Egyptian government is stable and is looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people.

Yeah, Right:

 

Central Cairo was the scene of violent clashes tonight, as the biggest anti-government demonstrations in a generation swept across Egypt, bringing tens of thousands onto the streets.

Shouting "down with the regime" and "Mubarak, your plane is waiting," protesters demanded the end of President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year dictatorship and said they were fighting back against decades of poverty, oppression and police torture. The protests had been declared illegal by the authorities and were met with a fierce police response, as tear gas and water cannon were fired into the crowd and rocks were hurled into the air by both demonstrators and security forces.

"We have never seen anything like this before � it is the first day of the Egyptian revolution," said Karim Rizk, one of those who joined multiple rallies in the capital.

Reports of water cannon, tear gas and casualties are rife. But Clinton and the State Dept. are talking up stability and the willingness to accomodate of Hosni Mubarrak, long-term dictator who just rigged a parliamentary election and is preparing to rig a presidential one that would give him six more years. Pull the other one, Hillary, it has bells on.

Last week, Jackson Diehl slammed the Obama administration's unwillingness to pressure the Egyptian dictator, even in the wake of the Tunisian revolution.

But observers in Egypt and across the Middle East were quick to get the message: Obama's support for "free and fair elections" does not extend to Egypt.

In one sense this is unsurprising: For two years the administration has soft-pedaled the cause of reform in Arab autocracies and above all in Egypt. The thinking seems to be that Mubarak's help is needed in the Arab-Israeli peace process, which Obama has futilely focused on at the expense of other issues; that there is no alternative to Mubarak, despite the emergence of a mass reform movement behind Nobel peace prize winner Mohammed ElBaradei; and that there is no possibility of a popular revolution in Egypt.

That analysis may be correct -- but it ignores the lessons that Middle East experts are drawing from Tunisia. The Carnegie Endowment's Michelle Dunne cites three: "First, widespread economic grievances such as youth unemployment can indeed quickly translate into specific demands for political change, and second, this can happen even in the absence of strong opposition organizations."

"The third lesson of Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution was perhaps the most memorable of all: When long-postponed change finally comes, it is often startling how relatively little effort and time it can take."

These lessons apply to a number of Arab autocracies, including Algeria, Libya, Jordan and Syria. But for United States, the stakes are highest in Egypt. In that respect, Obama's silence on the need for Egyptian reform isn't just short-sighted. It's dangerous.

Well, "Bush did it too" despite his rhetoric about freedom in the Middle east. And Clinton, and Bush Senior, and...

But that's no excuse and the perennial U.S. willingness to look the other way as it favors stability over democracy in the region may yet bite it on the ass in this sudden climate of Tunisian Dominoes. "This could be an extremely destablizing development. A good development, but it will upset the status quo enormously." But State and the White House need to think outside the traditional box on this, fast.