Egypt and "Triangulation" (Updated)

By Steve Hynd

Isn't this perfectly Clinton-esque?

The United States and leading European nations on Saturday threw their weight behind a gradual transition in Egypt, backing attempts by the country�s vice president, Omar Suleiman, to negotiate with opposition groups without immediately removing President Hosni Mubarak from power.

The strong endorsement came as Mr. Suleiman, a longtime security official and confidante of Mr. Mubarak, told opposition leaders that he would not press his boss to resign before September and ruled out any delegation of Mr. Mubarak�s power, central demands of the opposition.

...By emphasizing the need for a gradual transition, only days after emphasizing that change there must begin immediately, the Obama administration was viewed as shifting away from protesters in the streets and toward stronger backing for Mr. Mubarak�s hand-picked elite.

Stability, even if it comes at the hands of the man who led torturing by Egypt on George W. Bush's behalf, is preferable to putting America's support where it's rhetoric has long been about "democracy".

And even then, the Clinton/Pentagon Faction in control of American foreign policy can't help but try to have its cake and eat it too. Long-time insider Frank Wisner went of the reservation to say Mubarak might still stay only to get instant but anonymous pushback from the Sate Dept.

At the same Munich meeting on Saturday, Frank G. Wisner, the former ambassador President Obama sent to Cairo to negotiate with Mr. Mubarak, suggested that the United States should not rush to push Mr. Mubarak out the door. He said Mr. Mubarak had a �critical� role to play through the end of his presidential term in September.

�You need to get a national consensus around the preconditions of the next step forward, and the president must stay in office in order to steer those changes through,� Mr. Wisner said of Mr. Mubarak. �I therefore believe that President Mubarak�s continued leadership is critical � it�s his opportunity to write his own legacy.�

A senior administration official quickly sought to distance the White House from Mr. Wisner�s comments. American officials have said that they are seeking privately to nudge Mr. Mubarak out of his executive role ahead of September elections, though they have also said that they do not view his departure as an essential first step toward a transition to a new democratic system in the country.

Mr. Wisner, the official said, had not been supplied with talking points for his remarks to the Munich conference.

�We�re not coming out and making a pronouncement about Murbarak�s future,� this official said. �Frank Wisner was speaking for himself, he was not speaking for the United States government.�

My own thought is that Wisner's too much of a DC and Clintonista insider, too much of an old hand, to have "done a Biden" in so dramatic a fashion and thus can only imagine that a - plausibly deniable - message is being sent to Sulieman that Mubarak is still America's fall-back position if Sulieman drops the ball. ( Others disagree and expect Wisner to shortly be spending "more time with his family".)

Still, the fact that the White House is backing either will not play well with Egypt's protesters. Evan Hill, a reporter for Al Jazeera on the scene, tweets that " I think the US badly underestimates the Tahrir mood if it thinks it can edge Mub[arak] out". Well yes, it does. Deciding that the "little people" don't matter and can be safely ignored while playing power-chess with their lives is the very definition of the Very Serious People inside the beltway Bubble at work. 

Update: Clinton seems to be backing Wisner, according to Reuters:

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also spoke of supporting the Egyptian government to ensure a swift and orderly handover of power.

"President Mubarak has announced he will not stand for reelection nor will his son ... He has given a clear message to his government to lead and support this process of transition," Clinton told the same Munuch conference of world leaders.

"That is what the government has said it is trying to do, that is what we are supporting, and hope to see it move as orderly but as expeditiously as possible under the circumstances," she said.

Jeebus, did you ever read such other-side-of-the-mouth BS? I predict Wisner shouldn't be expecting more down time with his family just yet.

Reuters's Tom Perry writes "With some protesters insisting they want not just Mubarak but also his allies out straight away, moves to keep the 82-year-old president in office are unlikely to go down well". Gee, ya thunk?

Update2: OK, well I'm wrong on at least this much - the State Dept has now publicly distanced itself from Wisner's remarks so he'll be getting more family time after all.

 state department spokesman PJ Crowley said: "We have great respect for Frank Wisner and we were deeply appreciative of his willingness to travel to Egypt last week."

"He has not continued in any official capacity following the trip. The views he expressed today are his own. He did not co-ordinate his comments with the US government."

But even Jonathan Marcus, the BBC's veteran diplomatic correspondent is still left wondering if Wisner's remarks were "the view of just a well-informed expert on Egypt, or a glimpse from Mr Obama's special envoy of the real game plan in Washington?"

And currect talks between some opposition groups and Sulieman are notable not just for promised concessions but for the way they contained absolutely no mention of a departure date for Mubarak at all.