Mubarak Gone, Egypt Erupts In Celebration

By Steve Hynd

Last night, after Egyptian President Mubarak's shock refusal to step down for a second time, I was in full agreement with opposition figure Mohammed ElBaradei that today Egypt's streets would "erupt". I was honestly expecting ugly scenes, as it seemed to me like Mubarak and Vice President Sulieman had consolidated their joint hold on the military and would thus be able to keep the regime going and Mubarak in office until a September handover to Sulieman.

I couldn't have been more wrong. Egypt's streets did erupt as Egyptians turned out to protest in their millions, but the protests and marches on icons of the dictatorship like the presidential palace and State TV building were peaceful - and the army didn't shoot them.

Today at 1602 GMT VP Sulieman, who has now lost his job too, made a short statement.

"In the name of God the merciful, the compassionate, citizens, during these very difficult circumstances Egypt is going through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down from the office of president of the republic and has charged the high council of the armed forces to administer the affairs of the country," he said.

"May God help everybody."

It's being reported that the Supreme Military Council will dismiss the Cabinet, suspend Parliament, and govern with the head of the Supreme Court. It has already made some pro-reform statements, including saying that "There is no legitimacy other than that of the people," nand that it was committed "to shepherding the legitimate demands of the people and endeavoring to their implementation within a defined timetable until a peaceful transition to a democratic society aspired to by the people."

The reaction was both instantaneous and sustained. Al Jazeera reporter Evan Hill tweets: "The only sounds outside my window are horns honking and celebratory chanting. A complete cacophony."

But while Egyptians celebrate Mubarak's departure, looking forward it is by no means clear that they have won total victory. Reuters reports:

There was a note of caution in the background, however, over how far the military under Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, Mubarak's veteran defense minister, are ready to permit a democracy -- especially since the hitherto banned Islamist Muslim Brotherhood is one of the best organized forces.

"This is just the end of the beginning," said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"Egypt isn't moving toward democracy, it's moved into martial law and where it goes is now subject to debate."

U.S. officials familiar with the U.S.-sponsored Egyptian military say Tantawi, 75, has long seemed resistant to change.

Political risk consultancy Stratfor said: "The military has carried out a coup led by ... Tantawi. It is not clear whether Suleiman will remain as civilian head of the army-led government. Egypt is returning to the 1952 model of ruling the state via a council of army officers."

If so, then the military's rhetoric about democracy would be at odds with its own wishes for stability via dictatorship. Now where have we heard that equation before?