One Year On, Where's That "Government In A Box"?

By Steve Hynd

 

When General McChrystal sent NATO troops into the area around Marjah, a tiny and scattered township worth of buildings in Helmand Province, Afghanistan, a year ago today, we were told that the assault, entitled Operation Moshtarrak, would quickly clear and hold - with overwhelming force - a major Taliban stronghold. McChrystal himself promised to open up a "government in a box" for the people there. It was meant to be the flagship operational example of COIN in action.

It didn't turn out that way. The district governor turned out to be a convicted criminal who had stabbed his own son, and his boss a paranoid lunatic. In May, McChrystal described the area as a "bleeding ulcer" By June, the district governor had to be quietly replaced. As late in the fighting season as October, Marines deployed to the area found there were still plenty of Taliban in the area and still plenty of violence, with "firefights all over".

But since then, there's been little or no news from Marjah. That's mostly because the military have stopped allowing imbedded jounalists in the area. I know of more than one reporter who wants to visit the area and is being cold-shouldered. Which leaves us with only the military's own reports as to how the fighting in Marjah is gowing - and they are glowingly talking about success at last and a "weakening insurgency" - despite the possibility that any such "success" is due to the usual winter lull in Taliban operations.

Contradicting what many analysts see as military happy-talk, the Afghan NGO Safety Office reported in January that violence is escalating across the country, including in Helmand Province.

�...[T]aking the national data as a whole we consider this indisputable evidence that conditions are deteriorating. If losses [by the insurgents] are taken in one area they are simply compensated for in an- other as has been the dynamic since this conflict started.

�More so than in previous years, information of this nature is sharply divergent from IMF �strategic communication� messages suggesting improvements. We encourage NGO�s to recognize that, no matter how authoritative the source of any such claim, messages of this nature are solely intended to influence American and European public opinion, ahead of the withdrawal, and are not intended to offer an accurate portrayal of the situation for those who live and work here.�

And Associated Press reported the view of one senior NATO leaker that the "surge" hasn't made a dent in the Taliban insurgency.

A massive effort by US and NATO forces � including offensives in the insurgent heartland and targeted assassinations of rebel leaders � has failed to dent Taliban numerical strength over the past year, according to military and diplomatic officials.

A NATO official said this week that the alliance estimates the current number of insurgent fighters at up to 25,000, confirming figures provided earlier by several military officers and diplomats.

That number is the same as a year ago, before the arrival of an additional 40,000 US and allied troops, and before the alliance launched a massive campaign to restore government control in Helmand Province and around the city of Kandahar, in southern Afghanistan.

In Kandahar, which Marjah was meant to be a "proof of concept" for, insurgents can still target the regional police headquarters. In Afghanistan as a whole the Parliament may have finally convened but arguments over who defrauded who in the election continue and the investigation into illegal dealings at Kabul Bank have opened up a new corrupt can of worms that shows just how far from effective "government in a box" the country still is.

The surge has failed, there is no "government in a box" coming anytime soon and the only realistic chance of ending the longest war in American history - negotiations with the Taliban - is being deliberately blocked by Petraeus.

My friend and colleague Derrick Crowe writes today, it is time to call out an administration and military that care more about messaging the US about events in Afghanistan than they do about US soldiers and Afghan civilians' lives.

The insurgency�s momentum has not been reversed and security continues to deteriorate across Afghanistan. So let�s take the generals at their word when they say we had to reverse insurgent momentum by late August 2010 to have a chance at defeating the insurgency. Let�s also take the Pentagon at its word that insurgent �operation capability and geographic reach are qualitatively and geographically expanding.� That means that today, on the one-year anniversary of the launch of the escalated military campaign, we�re several months past the point of no return. And that�s if you bought the analysis of those who thought the escalation was a good idea in the first place.

The American people have been more than patient with Washington, D.C. when it comes to the Afghanistan War. In fact, we�ve been downright indulgent, having forked over more than $375 billion in tax dollars and debt and having given the Pentagon almost a decade now to play Risk in someone else�s backyard. Every deadline that�s been laid down has been fudged. Every justification that�s been given for just one more big push has fallen apart. Every guarantee of a positive outcome has been junked. We�ve had enough.

Rethink Afghanistan and our supporters are tired of politicans� making excuses for their failure to rein in this debacle, so we�re doing a little escalating of our own. Starting on Sunday, February 13, Rethink Afghanistan will have a new ad on CNN in Washington, D.C., featuring the winners of our Because It�s Time contest, calling for an end to the Afghanistan War. They represent the voices of the 72 percent of Americans who support congressional action to speed up the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. The ad buy also coincides with the upcoming reintroduction of U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee�s Responsible End to the War in Afghanistan Act in the House of Representatives. These actions send a strong message that we want decisive action from our elected officials to bring our troops home�because it�s time.

Today is the one-year anniversary of the launch of the escalated military strategy in Afghanistan. It�s clear from the last 12 months that the escalation strategy is a failure. It�s time to come home.

There is no other logical or moral conclusion.