By John Ballard via Twitter, starting here and the next few tweets.
(Should some writers should use Twit Longer? Not sure. I guess without editing its better they keep with 140 characters.)
Mahmoud Salem blogs at Rantings of a Sandmonkey.
Very smart, long-time thorn in several sides in the Middle East and one whom I track.
Ok, just so we can calm the nerves of our israeli twitchy neighbors, let me assure u: we aint gonna go to war with u.
The egyptian army and economy are both not equipped for such battles, & we have too many targets for ur airforce to hit
However, we do have numericaal superiority and no fear of death and we can draw this out forever, so don't think u r all that either.
But there are 3 things u can expect changinh, and they shouldn't allow them to alarm u. They have to happen. OK?
- The rafah gate will be opened for goods and travel. It will relief the situation, improve the economy & give us leverage over hamas
And it will also end the talk about "ghaza under siege" and u know that this is good for u even. Don't fight it.- U will start paying market price for our gas. Maybe even a markup. U been gettin it cheap & we cud use the money.
- The army will return to sinai. After 34 years of peace, we have proven good intentions. It has to come back at leat 4 border protection.
That is all. Also the islamists won't take power. Maximum 20% in parliament & prez contender. They don't want to inherit this mess.
Coz whomever takes over will have to cleanup 30 years of mubarak rule. That won't happen overnight. Our next prez is screwed.
Expect them to compete in 6 years at least for power. But islamists won't be a problem for now. So, chill. Ok? Chill!
This man's pragmatic thinking is unassailable. I find it far more reassuring than anything coming out of Washington or anywhere else. I doubt anyone in authority is listening, but that's nothing new. Too many "interests" have too much at stake to allow ordinary clear thinking to turn down the heat from a rolling boil to a low simmer.
Remember these sensible ideas as the next weeks pass. Hate speech, fear-mongering and and saber-rattling about Hamas and their purported connections with Iran are as predictable as tomorrow's sunrise.
The next chapter of Egyptian history will include, among other matters, market rates for Egyptian natural gas being used by Israel, responsible management of the Suez canal that does not jeopardize that critical national revenue stream and (maybe for the first time in decades) an Egypt that is no longer a puppet to the US. And if the anti-foreign aid, protectionist folks now a rising power in Washington have their druthers, Egypt may find different "national interests" of their own than in the past.
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