By John Ballard
Update a few hours later: Al Jazeera reports that this is the second oldest of Qaddafi's seven sons and is seen by some as a "reformist." Wahid Burshan, a Libyan political analyst now being interviewed on Al Jazeera, says the sons are central to events now, that Mohamar Qaddafi is out of the picture.
Also, conditions in Tripoli, the capital, are beginning to shift. The speech apparently implied that control of the oil revenue would be the tool used to bring the country under control. That would be more threatening except that the oil fields are in the East, South of Benghazi, where tribal loyalties first unraveled and tribal leaders there are voicing counter-threats that if order is not soon restored they will stop the flow of oil.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
As the son of Moamar Qaddafi speaks to the nation, Twitter is alive with activity. Here are a few responses....
Seif Al Islam Qaddafi speaking , shit he is mix of Qaddafi and Gamal Mubarak....Ok I am laughing...Here we are foreign agendas and opposition forces abroad...I fear that this guy will speak for hours just like his dad !!
He's summarizing what's been happening, like we didn't know....So the people were the ones who attacked the police and army, the army could not control itself....if he speaks long enough we might see him pulled off the set )....this will be the best scene ever
Now some channels, he is moving to Al Jazeera and foreign TV channels....Why do dictators never talk about reforms when they feel safe in power? When people protest they suddenly say they where about to make reforms! ....Let him fall as well. Every demon must come down now!....Who has given Saif Gaddafi the right and the power to adress the Lybian people on tv?
Apparently it dont come to Saifs mind that it's far too late for the system to begin to listen to it's people?....Ok this is new drugs and LSD !! loooooooooooool.....oOOHHH the Islamic threat the BIG BAD WOLF....Looooooooooool now he is accusing the Arab and African mercenaries of killing Libyans !! Who brought them....Who has taken the drugs? Saif is speaking about himself.....lolllllll still no mention of Kentucky :)))
Seif-Islam: it is not my Daddy's fault, it's everyone's else is fault.
Breaking - Al Arabiya: Al Sennousi: The fleeing of State Security from Tripoli means that Gadafi has left Tripoli.....LIbya is not Egypt nor Tunisia !! I heard this before loooooooooool....crazy Islamic LSD taking Africans!....Libya is not Egypt , it is tribes ,we do not have parties....Libya is not Egypt nor Tunisia , it has got Oil and American company united Libya !! WTF....he's right. Tunis and Egypt never used heavy military weapons against protestors......This jackass is insulting the tribes,in fact the Libyans.
@NubianCzar we are waiting for the main point and it has not come yet....@HansHoumoller If leaders are discontent with their people, they should be alliere to elect a new people!....Saifs speech on Libyan tv was terrorism disguized as serious talk. He threatended his people .....It's getting late, somebody tell him 2 SAY SOMETHING GOOD RT @Zeinobia NubianCzar we are waiting 4 the main point and it has not come yet....what what what is this an invitation for a civil war this jackass !!?
"Saif": We wil live and die in Libya", but where were Muammar Gaddafi during Saifs speech?....@Egyptocracy "It is even funnier that political analysts are taking this speech seriously". I agree .....Drunken Libyans driving tanks on the street?!.....This speech is historical !! and we were provoked by Mubarak and Soliman's speeches !!.....We will not listen to this, in benghazi in tripoli in the south we are one #Libya #Feb17 saif you are committing suicide on live tv.....Mubarak tried this, and he left the next day, you are bringing a day of rage tomorrow .....Libya is 1 LIbya is united! We will not be divided! #gaddaficrimes #libya #feb17 WE WILL BE FREE!
what is this finger !!?...Shit he said that Egyptians and Tunisians were arrested !!....Oh my Goodness he is turning the people against the Egyptians and Tunisians !.....He is telling the people that Egyptians and Tunisians are going to take the oil !!....Ok the military council should save our people ASAP.....Qaddafi is not Mubarak nor Ben Ali !! For sure he is the maddest.....Al-Islam's is the worst out of all "Arab-dictators-about-to-fall" speeches. In total denial, so disconnected from reality". However I'm sure h�elieved his words himself.
Remember, this is Qaddafi's son, the future head of state. Has this guy got a credibility problem or what?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I don't want to make light of what has become the most serious and deadly situation thus far as the dominoes fall. The death toll in Libya is not final but I have hard numbers from 200 on the low side to 500 or more at the top. Twitter snips like these are the darkest of gallows humor but with no reporters allowed in the only information escaping is from a handful of phone calls from regular people able to get through. Even Al Jazeera reports that its signals are being blocked across North Africa. Here is the link to their Libya blog.
At a distance the Libyan uprising might resemble civil war, but civil wars reflect internal conflict among popular factions not in agreement. What we are witnessing, however, is what happens when most of the population closes ranks against a dictator and whatever goons, thugs, mercenaries and others have been employed to keep them under control. The dynamic is very different. Recent unconfirmed reports are coming in that even in Libya some, if not most of the military are changing sides to join the popular revolt. If ordinary conscripts from the Libyan population outnumber foreign mercenaries this development would make sense.
Update: Al Jazeera guest Michael Singh sorts out a confusing report from Benghazi that the "Benghazi Army" refused orders to fire on protesters and was itself fired upon by the "Tripoli Army"!! The outcome seems to be that Benghazi is at the moment under control of the military but the situation in Tripoli is undetermined. According to the expert this situation reflects the differences in tribal loyalties in Libya which are more important than the national politic. Local tribal loyalties may or may not remain with Qaddafi. How many, how powerful or how large these groups might be was not discussed.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Postscript: The specter of a replay of the Iranian revolt looms in many imaginations. Unlike the North African Arab uprisings, the situation there is complicated by several differences. The Basiji Army, referred to as the Revolutionary Guard, is a large, diverse, blindly loyal group, more like the Brownshirts of WWII. Unlike the secular mercenaries of the Arab states, these forces are dedicated religious zealots. And the religious component of Iran's politics is inescapable. Though there are a few poor Arabs in the South, Iran is not an Arab country. The culture and history of Persia is not the same. It is a mistake to think of Iran as just another Arab country ready to pop.
No comments:
Post a Comment