By John Ballard
This is important.
(H/T diptychal)
To everyone calling for a million people protest today, here is an example of what I mean by politics of perception right now.. We used to claim legitimacy in the name of the population by calling for 1 million people to show up, this is not the case anymore. The main reason is the refrendum and how many people who voted for it: 14 mil yes, and 4 mil NO. 14 mil= new majority of people
So the roof of legitimacy is now so high, that u need to get 14 million protesters to claim u r talkin in the name of the people. Because, hell, u were just defined as 4 million of the population by the ref, which makes a 1 mil people march not impressive Hell, even by having 1 mil, which is now unlikely, u r preceived of only being able to convince 1/4 of ur base to show up assasan
So not only are u precieved as the minority of the people, u now seem unable to convince ur base of actually joining u. Not good. And while ur base includes people who voted yes, many anyway, that even makes the 1 mil figure even more unrepresenetitve. It's not 1 million people speaking in the name of the voters, it's 1 million out of 18 million who voted, no where near a majority So by actually calling for a 1 mil people protest, u r actually showcasing how low u aim how low ur support is. Again, not good if we add to that the idea that calling for 1 mil protest every week diminishes its power & thus its effect, coz it makes it normal ...then protesting becomes a very ineffective tool to push for changes in the government , coz the name of the game now is voter turnout.
This means u have burned the Tahrir card & the protesting card, as effective tools to enact change in Egypt by always using it Instead, what u need to do is organizing the citizens in other ways. Create citizen groups, make petitions, demand referendums on on demands
You need to organize the people who show up so u can always reach them, especially when u really need them come voting time So, if u want to continue having protests, plz do so, but recognize it shud be more about organzing them than pushin gov 4 demands Cuz the gov can now completely ignore u up to 4 mil people in a protest, cuz u r THAT minority, but won't be able to come voting day
Voter legitimacy is the name of the new game. How many supporters u have & know BY NAME , not by how many random people u can get.
That's all I have to say about that. Other than that, I wish everyone protesting the best of luck & hope all their demands get met :)
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This is not only important to the Arab democrats, it is also a case study in representative government generally. This is the reason academic types are always talking about institutions. It's also related to how unions interface with their sources of employment, whether public or private. Any threat to the status quo is a threat to institutional stability and power. And it is the reason oil socialism is typically connected with tyranny. -- a bit of oil revenue here and there (think Qaddafi's mercenaries, Iran's Revolutionary Guard, Saddam's Sunni minority) can buy a good deal of stability by paying off thugs and enforcers. (Also works well with tourist and US aid revenue streams. Oh, and Suez canal income, too.)
This crude dynamic is behind the Tea Party's hijacking of the US GOP. I think there are plenty of smart Republicans who know what's going on, but they have neither the courage nor tools to educate enough of their base to stop drinking the koolade. Like tyrants, substance abusers and junk food freaks they have discovered that corruption, addiction and obesity don't seem all that bad as long as you're not dead yet.
Nearly all progress requires delayed gratification and that's always a bitch.
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