By John Ballard
Update: Unbeknown to me, BJ Bjornson was putting up a post that for chronological accuracy should be read before this one. Mine took longer to craft so his precedes mine. Go there first.
Credit for these links goes to the Egypt Live News Twitter feed. I started following this is a fabulous aggregator when I noticed Jotman was also a follower.
?Donilon Explains Obama: 6 Quick Points
Mayhill Fowler writes about American politics and foreign affairs for The Huffington Post. She covered the 2008 presidential election for OffTheBus, the Huff Post experiment in citizen journalism.
Tom Watson tagged this article as "Most insightful piece on Obama/Clinton/Gates Mid-East policy I've read."
[WH National Security Advisor Tom] Donilon�s press conference, which he gave via conference call with reporters, was more revealing than anything we have heard to date about both the administration�s thinking on Arab Spring and the administration�s planning in response to it. Tom Donilon cracked open for us Obamic opacity.
Here, in what I rank to be their order of importance (and not the order of Donilon�s remarks), are the tactical lynchpins of the Obama/Clinton/Gates policy in the region. All the quotes are from Tom Donilon. They are especially revealing because the thrust of the conference call/the listeners� questions was what the administration calls �the civil unrest� in Libya.
1. �Egypt really is at the center.�
Donilon made this observation twice. Fleshing it out, he mentioned the fact that Egypt has the world�s largest Arab population. But the real significance, from a practical and strategic viewpoint, is that in our increasingly prioritized thinking Libya is just not as important. Why? Because the most fertile soil for democracy now in the Arab world lies in Egypt. Tomorrow Secretary of State Clinton travels to Egypt and Tunisia. ... She will meet with Libyan opposition leaders in Cairo, but the primary purpose of her trip, I am quite sure, is to nudge the Egyptian military, who have been backsliding, along the path to representative government.
2. �The international community spoke with one voice on this.�
Donilon is referring here to the linked efforts of the United States, United Nations, NATO, Europe, the Arab League and the African Union to isolate Muammar Gaddafi. This is a shift for American tactics. No longer will we be seen to take the lead up front. We will work behind the scenes�even if the set design is transparently fake and rickety�so that we will no longer appear to be an aggressor in the region.
3. �It�s not just regional rhetorical support. We�re going to be seeking actual support by those nations�the Arab League, the GCC and the African nations�to participate in any of these efforts as they go forward.�
Here is another significant change for our foreign policy. In the past, we have countenanced and hyped nominal support, whether in the First Iraq War, allowing Kuwaiti soldiers to �free� the homeland that we liberated, or now in Afghanistan, where the NATO coalition effort is a stalking horse for a largely American expenditure of lives and fortune and effort.
4. �Things in the Middle East right now and things in Libya in particular right now need to be looked at not through a static but a dynamic, and not through a uni-dimensional but a multidimensional lens.�
[...] The multidimensional lens through which Obama, Clinton and Gates look at the world is one we ignore at the peril of appearing obtuse and in fact observing much less intelligently than they.
I believe that it was Jon Stewart who once commented that Obama moves as if politics were three-dimensional chess. This is the way President Obama plays the great game in the Middle East.
5. �It�s not going to be resolved overnight.�
Donilon, in talking about Libya, encapsulates what may be the crux of Obama tactics. This president moves slowly, cautiously.
[...] here�s the thing about leaders who can move in three dimensions at once. That capability is like the muscle power of an anaconda. �Over time, of course, this will really squeeze and tighten the containment effort around Gaddafi,� Donilon says of the sanctions, arms embargo, referral to the International Criminal Court, etc.
This is how Obama foreign policy rolls: slowly, inexorably, squeezing with the muscles of patience and acumen. Just as much as any large reptile, it can be a formidable obstacle athwart a path, for friend and foe alike.
Both Obama�s tactics and strategy could not be more different than those of George W. Bush. After 9/11, the Bush Administration was not the anaconda lying in wait for its prey and then taking all the time needed to ingest and digest it. Storming into Afghanistan to revenge us upon Al Qaeda and their hosts the Taliban, the Bush United States was the enraged elephant whose foot had been stepped on by a mouse.
6. �We are engaged in efforts really across the region, from Tunisia all the way to obviously our ongoing efforts in Iraq.�
As Donilon quickly makes clear, the administration regards Iran as a different issue.
The demarcation is significant for several reasons�and not just because Iranians are not Arabs. Donilon calls out Iran for its �exported violent revolution.� The inference here is that Iran�s Arab neighbors, however imperfect, are not a threat to us. The inference is that the United States is dealing differently with Iran [and Iran] is not part of the democratic spring in the region.
Most importantly, Donilon�s careful separation of Iran from the Arab discussion shows that the Obama administration can flex the muscle of particularization�one not much used in our elephant incarnation during the Bush years.
One final point. Read through Obama�s press conference transcript. Three-fourths of his remarks, and almost all of his opening statement (except for the earthquake and tsunami in Japan), are targeted to domestic issues. What does that tell us about the Obama administration�s priorities?
This piece set the stage in my mind for the links that follow.
?Middle East has truly reached turning point The choice is no longer between corrupt secularism and militant Islam.
This ten-point essay is a good Arab compliment by Dr. Mojtaba Mahdavi, a Canadian academic, to what Ms Fowler dug out of the news conference.
From Tunisia, to Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Yemen, Bahrain, Iran and other countries of Middle East and North Africa, the region this year -to use journalist Rami Khouri's words -is like a "bride emerging on her wedding day and many people are commenting on whether her shoes match her gloves, when the real issue is how happy and proud she is." It is interesting but quite marginal to overemphasize whether Facebook/ Wikileaks drove these revolts, or what will happen if Islamists play a role in the governments to be formed.
The events unfolding before our eyes are the most important historical developments in the region in the post-colonial era, and to miss that point is to miss a revolutionary moment, which if it continues, has the potential to develop into an Arab/ Muslim version of Europe's tumultuous 1848, and in effect to give a birth to a new Middle East.
The key question is, what makes this a unique historical moment -a turning point? I have 10 tentative observations to share.
1. What we are witnessing in the Middle East and North Africa is no less than a "discursive paradigm shift: " a shift towards an inclusive and truly grassroots social movement that has brought together secular and religious individuals, Muslims and non-Muslims, men and women, and poor and middle class. This is truly a "post-ideological" movement.
2. These grassroots social movements claim/reclaim their dignity, self-determination, humanity, rights and destiny, democracy and social justice. These are all "secular" demands. The dominant mode is neither religious nor anti-religious. However, there is no clear demand for a "religious government." What we are witnessing are civil, moderate, non-violent, socio-political demands of grassroots movements. Certainly Libya is the most complex case. The nature of authoritarian regimes often shapes the mode and method of resistance. We should not forget that the current social movement in Libya was quite civil and non-violent in the first days of uprising. The extensive and exceptional use of naked violence by Gadhafi's regime forced the opposition to use violence. Hence, the Libyan case does not necessarily counteract my argument.
3. These movements are "post-nationalist" and "post-Islamist." Both nationalism and Islam, nationalists and Islamists, play some important role in these movements. However, these are neither nationalist movements of the 1950s, nor Islamist movements of the 1980s and 1990s. Neither the Egyptian Islamists (Muslim Brotherhood) nor the Tunisian Islamists (Renaissance Party/Hizb al-Nahda) sought to establish an "Isamic state." These movements are likely a historical turning point toawrds a post-Islamic future in which he faith is neither "the problem" nor the solution."
Islam, like other socio-cultural factors, will continue to play different roles in different social forces. The point is the choice is no longer between a corrupt secular autocracy r a militant religious autocracy; it is no longer between "us" or "chaos." The third alternative has already merged.
4. These movements have challenged the dominant cynical Orientalist discourse in the West and he mirror-image Orientalist notion n the East that countries of the reion are fated to live under either secular corrupt autocracy or militant Islamism. This is a false dichotomy constructed by politicians, not by the people. Such a flawed view suggests hat democratic values are alien to he Muslim mass culture and the Arab mindset is authoritarian. The current movements are laying waste to the whole discourse of Arab/Muslim exceptionalism.
5. These movements also provide a real test for Western governments to either give a meaning to their support of secular democracy in the region, or simply continue the old Cold War policy of supporting "friendly tyrants." This policy has constantly prioritized stability over democracy and geopolitics over human rights. In other words, this is a moment for the West to clearly take a position and support the people. Otherwise, the West will continue to worry about possible chaos and/or militant Islamism when the "friendly dictators" are not in power.
Siding with the people is the best moral and political choice if the West looks at its long-term interests. Moreover, let's not forget that Iran's pro-democracy Green Movement and the current Arab awakening became known only when the neoconservatives left the White House. The lesson is that whenever a foreign threat, military invasion and regime change policy are absent, people are in a better position to challenge autocratic regimes from within. Let's believe in people's maturity; they can represent themselves and deserve dignity.
6. Who drives these movements? What is the origin of the current political earthquake in the region? Former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak blamed the U.S. and Israel; the Iranian, Yemenis and Saudi authorities are doing the same. Libya's Moammar Gadhafi blames al-Qaida and some drug-addicted gangs. And interestingly, we hear voices from Israel and the U.S. that Iran is behind some of these revolts. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, for example, expressed her concern over Iran's involvement in Bahrain's social movement. I suggest we avoid the politics of blaming and scapegoating; let's not miss the big elephant in the room: people! People of the region are in charge.
7. These movements point to new socio-economic dynamics in the region. What we are witnessing is a revolt of youth, who constitute a large majority of the population. They are politically suppressed and humiliated, socio-culturally disappointed and economically dissatisfied. The issue is not merely a "bread-and-butter" one; it is about dignity and liberty as well.
8. This in part explains why we are witnessing the rise of the "middle class poor;" or, to use one observer's words, "the proletariat of the middle class" symbolized by Muhammad Buazizi of Tunisia who set himself on fire. The "middle-class poor" in the region are well educated and well informed about local and global affairs. However, they suffer from unemployment and poverty, thanks to neo-liberal economic policies. Such "structural adjustment" policies have translated into growing socio-economic hardship, the gap between "haves" and "have nots" and the supremacy of corrupt crony-capitalist cliques. The middle-class poor are the main victims. **
9. These people are not well organized in social organizations and therefore have no choice but to express demands in the streets; this in part explains the rise of the current new "street politics" in the region. The politics pursued in the 1980s and 1990s by this class were expressed through Islamist movements as the most serious challenge to undemocratic regimes. But Islamism itself has faced a deep crisis in recent years. The middle-class poor now seem to pursue a post-Islamist path.**
10. The regional and international implication of these movements is the beginning of another "new" Middle East and North Africa. This is not the new region U.S. neo-conservatives in Washington and their hardliner allies in Israel dreamed for: a neo-liberal quasi-democratic Middle East within the economic and political hegemony of the West. Equally important, this is also not the new Middle East the ruling Islamists in Iran dream of. Instead we have something else again emerging from the ashes of post-colonial, post-nationalist and post-Islamist legacies.
Each country has its own technique and timing to get where Tunisia and Egypt are today. There are different paths, patterns and periods to achieve democracy as there are different autocratic regimes and different social forces to challenge these regimes. The change may come in the form of meaningful reforms, revolutions or a combination of reform and revolution.
Iran's Green Movement inspired the Tunisian Jasmine Revolution and the Egyptian White Revolution. They in turn inspired other people across the region. The lesson the various regimes in the region have learned about how to respond is not clear. What is clear is that the current polities in the region are unsustainable, given the deep structural changes taking place.
Many of these societies are at the point of no return, and for many of them meaningful change is possible only through regime transformation. Whether, where or when radical changes materialize depends on the nature of the regime, the strength of social forces, the role of military and the structure of international politics.
Despite all these structural constraints, one should not underestimate the power of hope and will. Italian philosopher Antonio Gramsci has reminded us we need to overcome the "pessimism of the intellect" by the "optimism of the will."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
**The emergence of this "proletariat of the middle class" or "middle class poor" and its role in confronting crony capitalism has not yet been clearly articulated, but its importance is both credible and critical to the political dynamic.
?This discussion of the price of gold illustrates the intersection of inflation, food prices and civil unrest. As the price and availability of fossil fuels (once again) stands in the spotlight, this conversation should be as important to politicians as investors.
Hard Assets Investor: Do you tie what we saw happening in Egypt to the increases in food prices?
Mickey Fulp: Yes. We saw that happen in Tunisia recently. A government came down that was in power for 23 years, basically, because of food price riots. Certainly that is a big factor in Egypt. If that happens in East Asia? Most rural Chinese and Indians spend something about 50% of their net income on a yearly basis to feed their families. If that goes to 60 or 70%, we could see food riots in India or China. Then those countries are going to have to cool off their economies immediately by raising interest rates. We see that happening now in China. They're very concerned, although they very slowly raise their interest rates, incrementally.
HAI: It's not having much of an effect if, you know, if China is engineering a soft landing. And a lot of times, those soft landings end up to be a crash. If we start to see these riots spread throughout the world, isn't that bullish for gold, like a flight to quality?
Mickey Fulp: I think it most certainly would be bullish for gold. But it's going to be very negative, very bearish for industrial metals and other commodities.
HAI: Because it'll cause economies to contract sharply?
Mickey Fulp: Absolutely. So if we started seeing this, industrial commodities, which is really what's driving the commodities sector...I mean, we all talk about gold. But it's a really minor part of the entire commodities sector. The biggies out there are oil, coal, iron, aluminum, copper. And the demand for those could essentially collapse because of the demands being driven by China and India, for the most part, with food riots. If they can't engineer, as you say, a soft landing and it becomes a hard landing, that's very bullish for industrial commodities, in my opinion.
HAI: Now, you don't hear this talked about very much. Basically, you're saying that the bullish argument could create its own demise if prices continue to rise. And we're really talking about food. Because, again, if people can't eat, bad things happen.
Mickey Fulp: Absolutely.
HAI: So that bullish scenario creates the seeds for its own demise, at some point, if it continues on like that.
Mickey Fulp: I would agree with that too. What's happened in the commodities markets...I think they're very speculative right now. Hedge funds have moved big-time into commodities, just as they did from about mid-2007 to mid-2008, when we saw commodity prices go crazy, records being set. And that was all pure speculation in the futures market. I see that happening right now. It's driven, in large part, because of low interest rates. Speculators can't make money in other avenues of investments, so they're going into...
HAI: But the stock market is going up. In a little bit less than two years since March '09, the stock market's almost doubled here in the United States...
Mickey Fulp: True. And I would say that that factors into it too. But really, it's the hedge funds, I think, driving the speculative futures markets and commodities. That is very fickle money. That's fast money, easy money, quick money, to move in and out. [This is what Roubini calls the "mother of all carry trades." JB] And I hope that we don't see a collapse in commodity prices as we did pre-global economic crisis in the second and third quarter of 2008.
HAI: How much of an effect do you think the new regulatory measures, now, under Dodd-Frank - position limits, more transparency, moving things that formerly were off exchange onto exchanges...how much of a damping effect do you think that's going to have, if any?
Mickey Fulp: I don't have a really strong opinion about that right now. I think that's going to basically play out as the markets adapt. And certainly, the markets will adapt to the new rules and regulations. There have been huge dominant positions developed in some of the commodities over the last year or so. And I personally don't think that's very good for the market, especially when you get dominant shorts in the market. But as this plays out, I think the markets will adapt. And we may have a little bit of a time of a mixture of not quite knowing which way they will go. But eventually, people will learn to live with those rules and how to prosper under those rules. [Shorter version: We can get around those pesky little rules. JB]
?12th March 2011 - Follow up of Saudi/Egyptian commercial relations and pilgrimage matters
Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs Nabil el-Araby, received here today Ahmad Abdulaziz Qattan, the Saudi Ambassador-Designate to the Arab Republic of Egypt and the permanent representative of Saudi Arabia to the Arab League, who presented to him a copy of his diplomatic credentials. In a press statement after the meeting, Ambassador Qattan reiterated his full commitment to the directives of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, the Crown Prince and the Second Deputy Premier for the enhancement of the historical Saudi-Egyptian relations and for the service of the Saudi nationals there. Qattan also stressed that maintaining of the brotherly ties between the people of Saudi Arabia and Egypt and following up the Saudi-Egyptian relations at all levels, will be his first priorities. 'Moreover, the focus and attention in the upcoming period, will be in the promotion of investment and trade exchange between the two countries and facilitation of Saudi and Egyptian businessmen's matters as well as tackling issues of concern as regards the performance of Hajj and Umrah rituals.
Is there a place where faith and money intersect? Gimme a break. Take a way the trappings and faith is principally about how money is to be properly handled.
Saudi Arabia has oil and the Haj, and Egypt controls the Suez Canal. Ya think commercial considerations might be involved with either? Hmmm?
Oh, and as matters unfold in that part of the world, which part of "making friends" do you not understand?
?Arab League to hold key meeting over Libya
The Arab League was preparing to hold key talks on the conflict in member state Libya Saturday, predicted to back a no-fly zone to ramp up the pressure on Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.
Top officials in the pan-Arab organisation said two envoys from Tripoli would be excluded from the meeting, held as Gaddafi's forces step up their attacks on rebels. .
"No Libyans will attend the meeting based on the decision of the Arab League on March 2 to suspend Libya from meetings," Hisham Youssef, chief of staff of Arab League secretary general Amr Mussa, told AFP.
Foreign ministers and representatives of the 22-member bloc would discuss "the developments of the situation in Libya to find ways to end the bloodshed in Libya," Mr Youssef said.
The foreign minister of European Union chair Hungary, Janos Martonyi, said Friday that "the expectation is that they will support a no-fly zone under some conditions."
"The best thing I think would be that a concerted action would be planned and implemented with the countries of the Arab League," he added.
EU leaders agreed at an emergency summit Friday to talk to Gaddafi's opponents and protect Libyan civilians "by all necessary means" while stopping short of outright military threat. They demanded that Gaddafi "relinquish power immediately" and deemed the opposition council based in the eastern city of Benghazi "a political interlocutor."
?Tribal Engagement Tutorial: The Jirga and the Shura
Do Arabs have Jirgas?
Is there a difference between a meeting of MENA Arab tribal leaders and their cousins in Asia?
Surely somebody in the State Department is paying attention.
Surely.
Let's hope so. We sure don't want to mess this up...again.
Gotta love the Arab League: they have called simultaneously for a
no-fly zone over Libya and for no foreign intervention in Libya
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