By Steve Hynd
Libyan rebels have rejected a truce plan which would have ended the bloody fighting there because it did not insist on the immediate departure of Moammar Gadhafi. According to reports Gaddafi had accepted the terms presented by the African Union.which included an immediate ceasefire, a dialogue between the two sides and access for humanitarian aid.
The BBC (link above) reports that Western nations are still backing the ouster of Libya's dictator.
International reaction to the AU proposal was lukewarm. Nato - whose air strikes are targeting pro-Gaddafi forces - said any ceasefire must be credible and verifiable.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the US wanted to see a transition which would include Col Gaddafi leaving Libya.
UK Foreign Secretary William Hague said any ceasefire must meet the conditions set out in the UN resolutions.
His Italian counterpart, Franco Frattini, who met Mr Hague for talks in London on Monday, said the only way forward for Libya was without Col Gaddafi.
The question is: how do they all expect this to happen now? The conflict is bogging down into a strategic stalemate, with the rebels incapable of taking further territory without NATO air support which is now restricted by rules of engagement that more closely match the original UNSC resolution calling for...a ceasefire, dialogue and access for international aid. There's no sign at all of the rebels being able to affect Gaddafi's ouster nor can Gaddafi destroy the rebellion while NATO is flying top cover.
The rebel forces in Libya are dreaming - and their Western supporters, still calling for regime change no matter what the UNSC resolution says, must know that.
Update: Oh, by the way, the Pentagon estimates than the cost to the United States of all this so far has topped $600 million and is climbing at about $8.3 million a day. What would that pay for in your neck of the woods?
Update 2: Tony Karon on why he expects a ceasefire in Libya soon:
some of the AU proposals echo principles [included in] Turkey's peace efforts -- a cease-fire, withdrawal of Gaddafi forces besieging rebel held towns, and opening of humanitarian corridors. The Turkish proposals seem to involve Gaddafi stepping back, although not necessarily leaving Tripoli, and letting his more reform-minded sons run the regime through a period of transition, in which it negotiates the holding of free elections with the the opposition.
Even that may be more than the rebels are willing to accept, right now, but if the military stalemate persists, pressure will mount for a compromise. NATO won't allow the regime to eliminate the rebellion, but the rebellion is unable to eliminate the regime, and NATO is not prepared to do the job for them. So, Despite Jalil's vision of a march to Gaddafi's doorstep, the battle on the ground may now have been reduced to a fight over the terms of an inevitable truce. There's little question, now, that the current chapter of the Libyan rebellion ends at the negotiating table, with neither side getting all of what it wants.
I'd like this to be true. A stalemate that includes negotiations, a ceasefire and access for humanitarian aid suits me just fine. But I'm just not as sure that Sarko-parte, who is so obviously leading the West's regime-change charge for his own electoral reasons, will play ball. I'm not so sure the neoliberals in the Obama administration, from Clinton on down, or the neocons in charge of Britain's defense and foreign policy desks, will play ball either.
And even if they do - candidates to police the ceasefire on the ground, please?
This is slowly - I joke - becoming funny. The West and their rebel allies, no laughing, are continuing to demonstrate they are from the past to everyone but themselves. BO & gang will, of course, wait 'til something seems permanent before the latest US cabal issues another stirring pontification to be pronounced on by all the pristine lovelies in and around DC. And nothing Turkey or the AU has done will be considered by the almighty USA which is, of course, why it's a thing, I hope, fingers crossed, bless my ... . of the past. I think I'm becoming anti-American - policy least, eh.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rocketnews.com/2011/04/video-how-the-middle-east-is-changing/#comment-25092
ReplyDeleteIt is unclear, then, whether the war will actually end even if the ceasefire is agreed to by the rebels. NATO officials appear keen on continuing with their air campaign for the foreseeable future, and even if Gadhafi and the rebels agree to a formal partition, it won�t necessarily stop NATO from continuing to bomb Gadhafian targets.
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