Syria Links

By John Ballard

This morning's reports out of Syria are dripping blood and more will follow as the hours unfold.

Reader advisory: Many of these images and descriptions are disturbing.
It's odd that when movies, even television, include bloody graphic images, warnings are even necessary.  But like children playing video games we sense the difference between fiction and non-fiction. These Syrian images are non-fiction. And post-mortem images of a young man with the back of his skull blown open or someone with the lower quadrant of his face missing are even worse when we realize they are not only real but recent.

It's too soon for anyone to draw conclusions. When experts cannot agree I would be presumptuous as an old guy blogging to do more than report what I have found. This will be a long post anyway, so by way of background the first two bullet points are  repeats of material posted March 26.
This morning's links begin at the third bullet point.

?Syria's Assad No Longer in Vogue
Tony Badran, writing in Foreign Affairs, lays out the cold, hard facts about Syria. The headline is a play on an unfortunately untimely article in Vogue Magazine which in retrospect shines a Marie Antoinette light on the Syrian first lady and the ruling family as the Arab uprisings reach Syria.

According to many observers, Assad was supposed to be immune to this kind of popular movement. His anti-American policies and enmity toward Israel were thought to boost his legitimacy in the eyes of his people. Compared the advanced age of Egypt�s former president, 82-year-old Hosni Mubarak, and Tunisia�s ex-president, 74-year-old Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, Assad�s relative youth at 45 was also thought to be an asset. One Syria specialist, Joshua Landis, noted that unlike the aging Mubarak, the young Assad was �popular among young people� who �tend to blame [corruption] on . . . the �old guard.�� An unfortunately timed puff piece on Asma al-Assad, the president�s glamorous wife, in the current issue of Vogue, spoke of the �first lady�s central mission . . . to change the mind-set of six million Syrians under eighteen [and] encourage them to engage in what she calls �active citizenship.�� It gave plausibility to the claim that the Assads are a fresh breeze blowing through a decrepit house.

Ironically, the basis for such arguments was Assad�s own public relations strategy. When Assad inherited power from his father in 2000, he adopted the �old versus new guard� theme to cultivate his image as a reformer and bolster his legitimacy at home and abroad. For a brief period, he allowed dissidents to criticize corruption openly. But this so-called Damascus Spring was a cynical mirage. In the past decade, Syria has not seen a single meaningful act of reform.

The Assad dynasty, now in its second generation, is a family affair like others in the region. I have been mystified by the ease with which Basher Assad has effectively hypnotized influential people into believing he's such a nice guy. Dianne Sawyer's interview four years ago made him look like someone from a Disney movie. Looks nice, talks good English, carries himself with the quiet presence of a cleric. Or a Don Corleone. Check out this video (Caution: grim, shocking images) of the aftermath of a prison massacre in 2008 featuring brother Maher. The family resemblance is unmistakable, as well as the detached calm which takes on a more sinister quality under the circumstances.

Another factor playing into Syrian politics is a particular variation of Islam almost unique to that part of the region and associated with the Assad family, the Alawites.  I don't think everyday Westerners can possibly appreciate the complexities of how religion and politics are woven together in other countries, particularly in the Middle East. (I am certain that the Christian Zionists I know personally have such a narrow world view that trying to speak intelligently with them is a waste of time. Perhaps others are not surrounded by so much ignorance.) in any case, if the reader will forgive the carelessness of the comparison, my take on the Alawites is that they are a Muslim analogue to Unitarians. In the same way that many Christians don't consider Unitarians to be Christian, many Muslims, both Sunni and Shiite, have the same aspersions against Alawites.

?In the interest of balance, check out As Protests Mount, Is There a Soft Landing for Syria? by Josh Landis in Time.  Landis is one of Syria's most effective advocates and I followed both him and Tony Badran for several years through their respecve blogs. Landis travels to Syria often and reports back with a very soft touch when referring to harsh conditions there. His wife and inlaws are Syrian so he needs to be careful, but his academic credentials are impecable.

Having been brought up in privilege in Damascus, the President has more in common with the capital's elite than he does with the Alawites of the coastal mountains who brought his father to power. When Bashar al-Assad took over after his father's death in 2000, he began liberalizing the economy and society. High culture has boomed. Foreign imports, tourism and arts are being revived. Today, Syria is a wonderful place to be wealthy; life is fun and vibrant for the well-heeled.

For the impoverished majority, however, the picture is grim. One-third of the population lives on $2 a day or less. Unemployment is rampant, and four years of drought have reduced Syria's eastern countryside to a wasteland of dusty and destitute towns and cities like Dara'a. The last thing wealthy Aleppines, Homsis and Damascenes want is a revolution that brings to power a new political class based in the rural poor, or for the country to slip into chaos and possible civil war.

The Arab rebellion is sorting out the countries of the Middle East, distinguishing those that have become true nations, with a cohesive political community and an ability to leave behind the postcolonial era of dictatorship and repression, from those doomed to struggle by divisions of ethnicity, sect and tribe. Lebanon and Iraq have both stumbled. Libya is crashing before our eyes, and Yemen may also follow in a downward spiral.

I'm not sure I agree with his assessment of "those doomed to struggle by divisions of ethnicity, sect and tribe." He mentions  "Lebanon and Iraq have both stumbled. Libya is crashing before our eyes, and Yemen may also follow in a downward spiral." My view is that those divisions are the very substance of which the Arab uprisings are made. An idealistic younger generation is bringing to the political scene fresh notions of what real representative politics is about.

It is true that Libya is crashing and Yemen may soon follow. It is also true that Lebanon and Iraq are a both a mess. But it should be noted that unlike previous unrest in the region, this time there seems to be little, if any anti-American animus and relatively little aimed at Israel. Lebanon is an interesting case with its consociational constitutional form which protects (in fact, enshrines) various political and confessional minorities by constitutional mandate. When I first saw the term consociational I thought it was a typo. In the same way they say a camel is a horse designed by a committee, Lebanon's consociational system is a camel-looking version of what we like to think of as constitutional government.

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?Last night's focus on Syria by Judy Woodruff is excellent. By following one of the guests on Twitter I got a heads up this morning.

?Syrian Revolution : The Great Friday �Graphic�
Zeinobia is a top tier Egyptian blogger whose archive begins sometime in 2004. Her blogroll is an adventure in drilling into the Internets, although like most of our lists has places no longer active.
This link has a collection of You Tube videos documenting the Syrian atrocities, including images I warned about above.(H/T Crof)

She also links The New Syria Website (Arabic) showing a graphic map of the country where protests are turning bloody.

?The Syrian Leadership's Shame by Greg Djerijian
Unfortunately Djerijian only comments when truly significant events are unfolding. Readers not aware of him should do more reading.
A couple more videos are embedded here along with a bit more commentary, including a Twitter message that "Syria is running out of statues."

Unfortunately little time for detailed commentary, but watching this YouTube video (via Al Jazeera's 'Syria Live Blog') of protests in Homs earlier today, we clearly see that Bashar al-Assad's credibility is eroding with immense rapidity. This is what happens, after all, when you order your security forces to kill your own civilians. Bashar has been heard to infer he will not be another Ben Ali or Mubarak. But is he planning a Gaddafi type strategy instead? This is not 1982 in Hama and regardless Tom Friedman's 'Hama Rules' are being re-written before our eyes. And while this YouTube is less graphic than others circulating on the Internets, the brutishness of the security crackdown and desperation of those attempting to assist the wounded is nonetheless arresting (and damning to the regime). It is impossible to predict with certainty, but I cannot see a turning back now or restoration of calm. The genie of increasingly insistent protests seems out of the bottle, and one now wonders whether Bashar is ultimately willing to kill, not scores, but thousands, in a desperate gambit to cow his populace, a terrible eventuality that will only lead to the regime's ultimate demise regardless, in my view.

?Great Friday: Over 80 Killed by Josh Landis
No Syria report would be complete with out Landis. Again, readers not familiar with the name should do more reading. I haven't time here to fill you in.
Just know that his is among the most informed of all commentaries on Syria and despite a clear sympathy for the country and having Syrian in-laws, his academic credentials are impeccable and his observations rock solid.

Over 80 dead are reported in the government crackdown on Friday April 22. The government is struggling to contain the demonstrations. Some think that they would not grow indefinitely were the government to permit them to go ahead. Who knows? Clearly the government is not prepared to find out. Many Syrians fear chaos and are staying inside. It is hard to figure out how many are coming out to demonstrate; the numbers continue to grow. The Maydan district at the heart of traditional Damascus was the site of several killings. [Correction the day after - Reuters: "In Damascus, security forces fired teargas to disperse 2,000 protesters in the district of Maydan." No deaths are reported today in the Maydan and only small numbers of demonstrators. This can be read as "good news" because the demos were very small, or "bad news" because demos began in the heart of traditional Sunni Damascus.]

This is bad news for the regime. The Maydan has long been the center of revolutionary activity in Damascus. It is the traditional home of the grain merchants who provisioned the city with crops from Deraa and the bread basket of Southeastern Syria. All of Sunni Damascus will grow bitter because of these deaths.

Syria�s streets seem to be filled with the endlessly numerous youth of the country, who are angry, underemployed and ready for change. As the death toll rises, the likelihood of either side backing down grows smaller and the likelihood of prolonged struggle grows larger.

Demonstrators stormed the mayor�s office near Daraa in what could become a precedent for opposition action in the future. It is not clear what the opposition�s strategy is other than to continue increasing the number of demonstrators. So far, there has been no systematic resort to arms by the opposition in the face of the crackdown or effort to take over government buildings. In Banyas, there seemed to be armed elements that exploited the chaos brought on by demonstrations. But in most cities, this has not been the case. The opposition has been able to retain its discipline behind the call for peaceful protest. [Comment above by JL]

Landis' link is longest of all.
I have yet to read it in full, but his commentary and the comments thread will give as full as possible a survey of arguments and opinions about what is unfolding.

I have picked up a couple of hints on the Twitter feed that "Salafists" and/or "Islamists" are behind the unrest. This is not surprising since the Assad dynasty is Alawite, and Christians are more apt to be among the well-off population of Syrians. More Sunnis, however, are among the disadvantaged. I get the feeling that the Syrian protests have more to do with constitutional reforms (real, not ersatz) than a complete replacement of the whole political system.