Scotland's Big Shake-Up

By Steve Hynd

Earlier this week, a momentous political event went un-noticed by most of the American political intelligentsia. It's a fair bet that most of our, largely American, readership won't care even after I tell you what it is - but you should.

The Scottish National Party won a landslide victory in elections to the devolved Scottish parliament, winning an overall majority in an electoral system that had been set up by London to ensure a majority was impossible.

"Meh" says you. But you shouldn't, for two reasons. The first is that a truly left-wing and populist party didn't have to move to the right to get votes - and left the faux-left and the further-right in their dust. Every progressive and lefty in the world should be looking to Britain right now and asking "how do we do that?" The second is that, in less than five years, there will be a referendum which could mean the end of the 300 year old United Kingdom of Great Britain - potentially a massive shakeup for American foreign policy which for decades has relied on the UK, and Scotland in particular, as the "unsinkable aircraft carrier" on the Northern flank of NATO in Europe.

For many American activists, the first reason to pay attention to Scotland is going to be more important. As my friend Bob Morris writes:

They decimated Labour and the Lib Dems. They did not do this by being timid little church mice and constantly moving to the right. Instead, they stood strong for health care, affordable housing, education for all, and a green economy which includes investment to develop Scotland�s huge wind, wave, and tidal energy resources. And the voters responded.

This of course is what the Democratic Party here should do. Stand tall and fight for specific issues instead of cravenly capitulating, trying to grab a mythical center. The SNP shows us Left can win.

Every other party saw their share of the vote drop - including the conservatives. Liberals deserted in droves to vote for the SNP, a truly left-wing and populist party, while the Blairite faux-left rump of the  Labour Party were unable to compete with a truly left-wing agenda (PDF). The first lesson of Scotland for America's left is: stop voting for Whigs, who will never, ever give you more than a fraction of your agenda. Instead, build a party that will give you all of what you want, even if it takes decades. The Whigs will never be done telling you that the next election is the most important ever and that the conservatives will destroy the nation if they get in - yet somehow, the nation always survives to totter along.

Now, at a UK level both Labour and the Conservatives are running scared. Some, in fact, are in full Harry Flashman mode. British prime minister Cameron is already offering political concessions to First Minister salmond that will enable the SNP to borrow money for capital investment in infrastructure - exactly the kind of stimulus package many on the left had hoped Obama would order in the U.S. No talk of deficits there - the SNP have kept Scotland's budget in the black for the last five years. The left in Scotland has proven it is not only a viable party in its own right but a viable party of government. The lessons for the left in America should be obvious.

But the second reason to pay attention to events across the pond may well turn out to be just as important.

Claiming his party's victory as "historic", Mr Salmond immediately declared his intention to bring forward a referendum on Scottish independence. His new majority at Holyrood gives him the votes to get a referendum Bill through the Scottish Parliament, meaning Scots will be asked if they want to secede from the United Kingdom at some time in the next five years.

So? Well, the SNP have a firm nuclear free stance. This would mean no manufacture, storage or location of nuclear weapons in Scotland and a "negotiated withdrawal" of Trident from the Clyde. Nuclear-armed vessels would be banned from Scotland's land, sea or airspace and "this would be non-negotiable". The SNP also and has a stated intention of withdrawing Scotland from NATO, although an independent Scotland would join the EU.

You'll see a lot of stuff in the English press pushing polls that say only a third of Scots will vote for independence. Well, over half voted "yes" in the last referendum in 1979 - Scots only didn't get their wish because the then labour government included a clause about a 70% super-majority. And none of the pollsters currently being cited in England got the size of the SNP's support in this election right - not be half. William Hill the bookmakers just cut the odds on a "yes" vote from 5/2 to 9/4. I'll trust the bookies over the pollsters - after all, they have skin in the game.  'We are already seeing money for a Yes vote if and when the referendum does take place, and after taking a hammering from the gamble on the SNP winning the Election we're wary of taking them on again!' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

I'm sure the foreign policy and national security wonks among you can draw the obvious conclusions about the changed balance of power in the North Atlantic. Without Scotland as an anchor on the GIUK line, Russia's ability to project maritime power against American wishes would be greatly enhanced. Without Scottish basing for subs, America's own ability to project its military superpowerdom in the region would be somewhat curtailled.

And on a wider stage, although in England the conservatives would face a short-term backlash for "losing the Union", in the long-term they would become the natural majority government. It's a calculation that must tempt many Conservative grandees. Pro-European policy wonks will be aghast at the prospect, as it would inevitably lead to England being a spoiler in the EU, or English withdrawal from that body. America too, should wonder about how that might upset the balance of economic power. All that anyone can say is that no-one really knows how it would turn out.

Full disclosure - I've voted SNP my entire life. I'm convinced that an independent and leftist Scotland is best for Scots. I'm just not entirely sure that the ripple effects from that are going to be good for the rest of you.