By Dave Anderson: .
At the height of violence in Iraq, attacks averaged around 100 attacks per day. A plurality to a majority of these attacks were either IED or mine attacks. This level of violence was sufficient to create and sustained state failure in Iraq until the Shi'ite militias and military units undertook systemic ethnic cleansing in mixed sect urban areas and Sunni elites flipped to have the other group of heavily armed foreigners with their own agenda bash the more annoying group of heavily armed foreigners with their own agenda.
Wired's Danger Room has some data on the pace of violence in Afghanistan. It is down to only the height of Iraqi levels of violence now and we call that success:
Enemy attacks are down to about 3,000 per month, from approximately 4,000 last year....
And this is success... levels of violence minus the urban ethnic cleansing that makes the Sunni Triangle look quiet. There are no majoritarian ethnic/sectarian militias that are able to conduct large scale ethnic cleansing campaigns against a determined minority (the Pashtuns are at least the plurality of Afghanis,) nor is there a high probability of the Pashtun elites flipping their support between one group of heavily armed foreigners to another.