By Steve Hynd
The new National Intelligence Estimate is out (PDF). On Iran's nuclear program, (Update: It's the Annual Threat Assessment rather than an NIE, no matter what ISIS catalogues it as.) Here's the key graph:
We continue to assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that bring it closer to being able to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so. We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons. (Hat tip: NIAC)
In other words, Iran is seeking a virtual deterrent, the ability to surge quickly to a bomb in the event of an attack on it rather than an actual weapon-in-being. Which is exactly what I said was the assessment of the intelligence community, as proven by multiple statements by multiple officials, no matter what Hilary "Madame AIPAC" Clinton and the neocon "Real Men go to Tehran" crowd might wish.
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