By Cernig
UPI is reporting that there's been a clash between US troops and militants in Sadr City, resulting in 5 deaths. But recent reports suggested that Sadrists and the Iraqi government had made a deal which included keeping US forces out of the area - and US commanders had indicated they were "following the Iraqi lead" on this.
Fighting between U.S. troops and militant forces in Baghdad's Sadr City killed five people and wounded eight, Iraq's Interior Ministry said Wednesday.
The fighting occurred in Sadr City's Fadhailiya district, scene of several clashes between U.S.- and Iraqi-led forces and supporters of rebel Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, CNN reported.
Since a cease-fire was reached this month, violence in Sadr City has dropped, the Interior Ministry official said.
Some Mahdi Army folks in Sadr City are going to be pissed about this, which seems to be a breach of the ceasefire deal, and I suppose it might mean an end to the precarious truce in Baghdad. While that would increase violence again, it would give the Iraqi government, now with 10,000 troops and armor in residence, an excuse for a crackdown of the kind which has so helped give Maliki his new "hard man" reputation after years of being seen as weak and inefectual. Then again, Sadr has been pushing a new, softer and non-violent look recently - obviously intending to share common cause with Grand Ayatollah Sistani against permanent US bases as well as looking to give his rivals no reason to outlaw his movement before provincial elections.
My guess is this incident alone won't destroy the truce - but that Maliki has far more reason to provoke an end to it than Sadr has. However, there's also a danger that further disaffected Mahdi Army groups might splinter off from the main movement, return to violence, and provoke a massive Iraqi and US military response. That would enable Maliki to tar all Sadr's movement with the same brush while seriously weakening Sadr's hold over his own people. Sadr's best hope in such a situation would be to ruthlessly police his own firebrands in private while clinging close to Sistani's shadow publicly.
Good stuff.
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