It's not you, it's your ideas

By Fester:

Right now if I was running a campaign for a generic Republican challenger against a generic Democrat with no major wife beating, coke sniffing or money freezing problems, my job would be extraordinary tough as the generic issue and political environment is not favorable to my candidate.  I would also be faced with significant internal party pressures to either become more hardline conservative or to be labeled a RINO.  This would not be fun; although it would be challenging. 

Given some recent polling, I would be tempted to advise my candidate to say absolutely nothing on policy beyond puppies are good and run on the brand of being a Republican?  Am I crazy on recommending running away from an issue campaign and running towards a branding campaign?  I don't think so, even though my hypothetical employer would be facing an uphill climb either way and would most likely lose in November as the Next Right is analyzing some very interesting brand and policy polling data:

Let�s take a deeper look into the data and see how
our messages play when voters know where they�re from and when they
don�t know which party is saying what.  If you want the exact wording of both parties� message and the full data, go back and take a second look at the poll.

Let�s start with the economy. When voters know
what party each message comes from, we loose 37% to 58% and trail among
independents by 18%.  Ouch. However, when you read both messages without telling voters who they come from, the story gets worse.

Republican voters like the Democrat�s message more
than their own party�s message by a large 14% margin when they don�t
know which party it comes from.  Just as disturbing, numbers among independents drop by another 10%... giving the Democrats a massive 28% advantage.  Even our horrifically damaged image is better than our message on the economy.  Independents and even Republicans simply like the Democrats� plan more than ours.

Iraq and trade both follow the exact same pattern.  We�re
getting smashed on both issues on the partisan test, but when you look
at the nonpartisan test where our damaged image isn�t a factor, the
numbers get even worse among Independents and Republicans.  A few Democrats (and in the case of trade a bunch
of Democrats) move our way on the nonpartisan ballot.......

 Among
Republicans, support for the GOP message on taxes drops by a gargantuan
53% when the party�s names are removed, leaving the Democrats with a
14% advantage.....  

The takeaway? Our message right now is electoral poison and this isn�t all about �brand.�

OUCH!!!  Branding and consistency of messaging is important but only when the ideas are palatable or can be made palatable to a decent fraction of the population.  Instead what we are seeing right here is the elements of a realigning movement as the Republican Party is rejecting the Republican Party.  Residual loyalty and long-standing brand imaging is currently supporting Republican Party fortunes and not causing disproportionate harm.  Staying away from policy and running as a generic sunshine candidate may be the best that most Republicans could do this fall. 

John McCain has been trying to run a campaign as an anti-Bush change agent who, on most issues, is presenting standard issue Republican policy tropes and when he is not, he is either ill-informed, unengaged, or seeking minimalist defensive measures instead of proactive solutions such as on greenhouse gases auctions.  Right now he is about even in the daily tracking polls although his electoral map is a losing map as of this morning.  So this polling information is reassuring that although the McCain Brand is stronger than the Republican brand, his solution set has very little salience with the public.